Will Senior Citizens Outnumber Those Below 18 Globally By 2080? Here's What the UN Report Says

According to the World Population Prospects 2024 report, the projected earlier peak in global population growth is attributed to various factors, including declining fertility rates in some of the world's largest nations.

In Beijing on October 1, 2023, visitors snapped smartphone photos of a bustling street near Tiananmen Square during a National Day flag-raising ceremony.

Will Senior Citizens Outnumber Those Below 18 Globally By 2080?

The report, released on World Population Day, predicts that the world population will surpass 8 billion, then it will eventually peak in the 2080s at approximately 10.3 billion, marking a significant shift from projections a decade ago. The population is then expected to decline slightly to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century, as reported by NPR.

John Wilmoth, head of the U.N. Population Division, noted that there is an 80% probability that the global population will peak within this century. He remarked, "This represents a major change compared to United Nations projections from a decade earlier when the estimated likelihood of the global population reaching a maximum during the 21st century was about 30%."

Tom Cassidy, a mathematics professor at Bucknell University, co-authored research published in the journal Demography suggesting that the population peak is likely to occur before the end of the century. The earlier-than-expected population peak, as per the World Population Prospects 2024 report, is driven by several factors, including reduced fertility rates in some of the world's most populous countries, as reported by Money Control.

Notably, China's population is projected to decline sharply from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million by 2100. Globally, the report highlights a trend where women are having fewer children than in 1990, with more than half of all countries and territories experiencing an average birth rate below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Approximately 20% of the world's population, including countries like China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, are facing "ultra-low" fertility rates, with women averaging fewer than 1.4 live births. In China, the average is around one birth per woman, indicating a significant demographic shift.

Navid Hanif, U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development, emphasized at a press conference that the revised population projections for 2100 have profound policy implications for global sustainability. The report notes that the population has already peaked in 63 countries and territories, including major nations like China, Germany, Japan, and Russia. These regions are expected to see population declines of up to 14% over the next three decades, as reported by Ndtv.

In contrast, another 48 countries and territories, including Brazil, Iran, Turkey, and Vietnam, are projected to reach their population peaks between 2025 and 2054. Looking ahead, the report underscores the importance of addressing global demographic shifts, including rising life expectancies post-COVID-19, demographic transitions towards ageing populations, and the potential impacts on labour markets and social policies.

Kathleen Mogelgaard, President and CEO of the Population Institute, highlighted the growing demographic divide, where many countries are experiencing or will soon experience population declines while others continue to grow, often among the world's poorest nations, as per media reports.

Wilmoth concluded that while population dynamics will undoubtedly shape the future, societal behaviours and policy choices will ultimately determine the course of global development beyond the population peak projected for the 2080s.