Political Stalemate Blocks Gun Law Reforms in Pennsylvania Post Assassination Attempt

Months before an armed man targeted Donald Trump at a campaign rally in rural Pennsylvania, some state lawmakers had proposed banning the type of rifle used in the attempt. The legislation stalled without a vote, which was expected. Pennsylvania has been politically divided for years on gun policy, lacking enough support to either strengthen or relax existing firearm laws.

Despite the shooting at Trump's rally, which killed one attendee, seriously injured two others, and wounded Trump's ear, changes in gun laws are unlikely. Democratic state Rep. Ben Sanchez, who sponsors several gun-control measures, including one to outlaw certain semiautomatic firearms, said, "Sadly, we'll probably be stuck with our similar gun laws, which are not strong enough."

Gun Law Trends Across States

Legislatures in over half the states have passed new gun laws this year, nearly matching last year's count. This has led to more restrictions in Democratic-led states like Maine and New Mexico, where waiting periods to purchase guns have been extended. In Hawaii, selling ammunition to those under 21 is now prohibited.

In contrast, Republican-led states have generally fortified gun rights. Louisiana and South Carolina now allow adults to carry concealed guns without permits. Many GOP-led states have also banned the use of special gun store tracking codes for credit card purchases.

Pennsylvania's Legislative Stalemate

Political divisions often hinder gun legislation in Pennsylvania. An exception occurred in October 2018 when then-Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf signed a bill requiring people convicted of domestic violence or subject to final restraining orders to surrender their guns within 24 hours.

A few weeks later, a mass shooting at a Pittsburgh synagogue brought Pennsylvania back into focus. The General Assembly responded by creating a five-year, USD 5 million grant programme for security improvements at houses of worship and other nonprofit organisations that could be targets of hate crimes.

However, bipartisan agreement has been scarce since then. In 2021, Wolf vetoed a Republican-backed bill allowing people to carry concealed guns without a permit. The following year, he vetoed another GOP-backed bill that would have allowed lawsuits against local governments regulating gun ownership in violation of state law.

Recent Legislative Efforts

In the November 2022 elections, Democrats won a one-seat majority in the Pennsylvania House and began advancing various gun-control measures. The House passed bills to expand background checks for gun sales and allow judges to order the removal of guns from people deemed risks by police or family members.

This year, the House passed a bill to ban ghost guns lacking serial numbers. However, all three measures stalled in the Republican-led state Senate. Three other measures failed in close House votes: banning trigger devices causing rapid fire, requiring electronic reporting of gun sales to State Police, and mandating reporting lost or stolen weapons within 72 hours.

Assault Weapons Ban Proposal

Sanchez's bill to outlaw what it describes as assault weapons advanced out of a House committee in January but has not progressed further. Although it had an exception for legally owned guns, Sanchez said the intent was to ban AR-15-style rifles like the one used by the shooter at Trump's rally.

After the shooting, Pennsylvania Attorney General Michelle Henry urged lawmakers in Pennsylvania and other states to create "assault weapons bans." She stated, "When one of the most secure and protected individuals on the planet — a former United States President — is not immune from dangers presented by the prevalence and accessibility of high-capacity, long-range assault weapons, we must react and reexamine our collective indifference to addressing this issue."

Challenges in Passing Assault Weapon Bans

Ten states and the District of Columbia already have laws generally prohibiting the sale, transfer or manufacture of what they describe as assault weapons. However, passing such bans is politically difficult because the AR-15 has become "a symbol of freedom" to ardent gun-rights supporters, according to Adam Garber, executive director of CeaseFirePA.

Trump did not mention gun policies while recounting his shooting during a speech at the Republican National Convention. Some Trump supporters remain wary of efforts to further restrict guns. Michele Tomsik, who attended Trump's rally with her daughter and crouched when shots rang out, said she feels current gun laws are adequate but wants more state resources devoted to mental health care.

Mental Health Concerns

The shooter used a legally purchased gun from his father and had searched online about major depressive disorder. Investigators have not determined if he was diagnosed with it. Tomsik questioned why someone would need an AR-15 and how he obtained it but worries about potential overreach on Second Amendment rights.

Research on Gun Policies

Research on state "assault weapon" bans is largely inconclusive regarding their effectiveness in reducing mass shootings or other forms of violence. Rosanna Smart from RAND Gun Policy in America Initiative noted better research exists on other policies like safe gun-storage laws reducing youth injuries and deaths.

The RAND report also found higher minimum age requirements for gun purchases can reduce suicides among young people. Additionally, increased firearm homicides are associated with looser concealed-carry laws and stand-your-ground self-defense laws.

High-profile incidents like Trump's assassination attempt often renew discussions about gun policies and mass shootings. Smart said it's challenging to determine which policies will effectively reduce such occurrences but noted these events offer opportunities to reconsider legal landscapes around guns.