Assad Overthrown: Who Controls Syria Now?

Syria is now mostly under the control of rebel groups and Kurdish-led forces after President Bashar al-Assad was removed from power on Sunday (8th December). The country is going through a transition that still involves Assad's government, but many uncertainties remain. People are unsure about who will take charge of Syria in the future and what will happen with foreign forces, such as Russia's military, which has been involved in the conflict.

Syrian rebel groups entered the capital city of Damascus on Saturday (7th December), facing little to no resistance from forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad. This marked the end of a major rebel campaign that started late last month, resulting in the fall of key cities like Aleppo and Hama to the rebels. Reports suggest that Assad left Damascus just hours before the rebels arrived, but his current location is still unknown.

The rebel attack was led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) , with help from the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), local fighters in the south, and other groups. Here's a breakdown of the main groups active in Syria after Assad's removal.

HTS

The rebel advance into Aleppo, followed by the capture of Hama and finally Damascus, was led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This group is headed by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, whose real name is Ahmed Hussein al-Shar'a. He is a veteran fighter who also fought against U.S. forces in Iraq after the 2003 invasion. After the rebels' victory and Assad's removal, Jolani visited Damascus on Sunday.

Before the rebel offensive, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) was based in the northwest province of Idlib, where it ruled through its own administration called the Salvation Government.

The Salvation Government refers to the administrative body set up by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to govern areas under its control, mainly in Syria's Idlib province. It acts as a local government, managing services like education, health, and infrastructure in those areas.

The Salvation Government was established in 2017 after HTS was formed through the merger of several Islamist armed groups. Before this, HTS was known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, which had separated from al-Qaeda in 2016. HTS is classified as a terrorist organization by countries like the US, Turkey, and organizations such as the UN.

Turkish-backed groups

Turkey supports rebel groups that are part of the Syrian National Army (SNA). These groups control areas in northern Syria near the Turkish border, such as Afrin, Suluk, and Ras al-Ain. The SNA took control of these regions in 2018 and 2019 after fighting against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

SDF

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is the military group that defends the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, a region in Syria with its own local government. The main group within the SDF is the People's Protection Units (YPG), a Kurdish armed group. However, the SDF also includes fighters from other communities, such as Arabs, Christians, and others, making it a diverse force.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control a large area in northern and northeastern Syria. This includes major cities like Raqqa, Hasakah, and Qamishli, which serves as the region's administrative capital. They also control parts of the Deir Ezzor province.

Turkey believes that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a group banned in Turkey. However, the SDF denies having any connection to the PKK.

The fighting between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Syrian National Army (SNA) is still happening. On Sunday (8th Dec) , clashes were reported around the city of Manbij. Just last week, the SNA took control of Tell Rifaat, a town north of Aleppo, from the SDF.

On Friday (6th December), SDF forces entered the city of Deir Ezzor. By Sunday, rebel groups claimed they had also moved into the city.

On Sunday, the political wing of the SDF congratulated the Syrian people, celebrating the fall of Assad's regime. They also promised to cooperate with other groups in the country to move forward.

The Syrian Democratic Council said they are ready to work with all Syrian groups, including national, cultural, and social leaders. They plan to take part in a national dialogue and take responsibility for helping create a new Syria that includes and represents all its citizens.

Russia

Russia has two military bases on Syria's Mediterranean coast-a naval base in Tartous and an air base in Hmeimim. On Sunday (8th Dec), the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that these bases are on "high alert." However, they also reassured that, at the moment, there is no major danger to their safety. This means that while the bases are prepared for any potential threats, there is no immediate or serious risk to their security right now.

The ministry confirmed that Assad has left Syria and stated that Russia is in contact with all Syrian opposition groups.

Russia supported Assad's troops during most of the civil war as they fought against rebel groups.

United States

About 900 US troops are stationed in northeast Syria, where they work with the SDF to fight against ISIS. The US also has another base in the south at al-Tanf, near the borders of Jordan and Iraq.

US President Joe Biden said on Sunday that American troops will stay in Syria to help maintain stability.

Southern factions

In southern Syria, different armed groups forced government forces out of the region. According to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, these local groups took control of most of Daraa province and the mainly Druze-populated Suwayda province on Friday (6th Dec). This means that the government lost control of these areas to local fighters.

Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Sunday(8th Dec) that he had instructed the Israeli military to move into the buffer zone in the Golan Heights. This happened because the Syrian army had left their positions in the area. The buffer zone was originally created as part of a 1974 ceasefire agreement between Israel and Syria to keep the two sides separated and maintain peace in the region.

Israel took control of most of the Golan Heights from Syria during the 1967 war and officially claimed the area as its own in 1981.

Later on Sunday, Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee advised people living in Quneitra and other areas near the Syrian border to stay indoors. He said the situation in the area was "forcing" the military to take action.

Transition of power

According to reports by Al-Monitor, Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali shared a video on Sunday saying he would remain in Syria. He emphasized that the country's institutions "belong to all Syrians" and voiced his support for a peaceful transfer of power. This shows his backing for leadership changes that aim to benefit all citizens.

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali said Syria can become a normal country that has good relations with its neighbors and the world, without joining any regional alliances. He said it will be up to the new leaders, chosen by the Syrian people, to decide this.

Jalali was appointed prime minister by Assad in September during a government reshuffle. Before this, he served as communications minister from 2014 to 2016. Since 2014, the European Union has sanctioned him for allegedly being involved in suppressing civilians.

According to Al-Monitor, Golani said in a statement on Sunday that fighters are not allowed to enter public institutions. He added that these institutions will stay "under the supervision" of Jalali until they are "officially handed over."

A video shared on social media on Sunday showed Jalali being escorted by rebel fighters, suggesting that he is currently working with the rebels while overseeing government institutions.