Karnataka: In the event of a BJP-JD(S) alliance, what happens to BSP back in UP
A hung house is what most exit polls have predicted for Karnataka. This would mean that Karnataka is staring at a coalition government and in all probability the JD(S) will play kingmaker.
Through the campaign, the Congress accused the JD(S) of being the BJP's B-team. Both the JD(S) and BJP have outrightly denied this and the latter said that it is capable of forming the government on its own.
In the event of a hung house, both the BJP and Congress would have to depend on the JD(S). Looking at the various combinations, a possibility of a Congress-JD(S) alliance is higher when compared to one with the BJP.
In case the JD(S) decides to go with the BJP, then it would have a lot of convincing to do since it is in an alliance with the BSP in Karnataka. This could shake up the combinations for the BSP back in Uttar Pradesh were it fought the by-elections to Gorakhpur and Phulpur in an alliance with the Samajwadi Party.
The big question is whether Mayawati would agree to such an alliance at the risk of stalking things up with the SP in UP which is more important for her and also is her home turf. Recently Mayawati had even said that the alliance with the SP would continue in 2019 as well. The SP it may be recalled had fought the UP assembly elections in an alliance with the Congress.
It would be interesting to see how the SP would react in case Mayawati agrees to a BJP-JD(S) combine. Sources say that in Karnataka it would be the JD(S) which would take the final call as it is the senior partner. Moreover JD(S) supremo, Deve Gowda would also look at the entire scenario in the context of the 2019 elections. If he feels that there would be a strong emergence of a third front, then he is bound not to support the BJP. It would also largely depend on which party is in a better position to form the government in Karnataka.
Mayawati on the other hand would only look at the scenario in the context of Uttar Pradesh. It has not been an easy ride for her back at home. She was first defeated by the SP in the assembly elections and then faced a huge set back in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls with the BJP trouncing all. The last UP elections was possibly one of the worst performances by the BSP. The by-polls in which she was an alliance with the SP would weigh heavily on her mind as they were able to defeat the BJP in two constituencies that were held by the Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh.
Going by these combinations, for now it appears as though the Congress is in a better position to win over the JD(S). If this were to happen, then the first casualty would be Siddaramaiah as Gowda his one-time mentor would have that pre-condition. Siddaramaiah has been accused several times of trying to finish the JD(S) and hence in any sort of an alliance he would not feature.
The statements by the Congress also indicated that they were cozying up to the JD(S). The talk of having a Dalit chief minister did the rounds on Sunday, with Siddaramaiah himself saying he has no opposition to the same. In the case of a Dalit CM being chosen, then the Congress is likely to go with either Malliakarjua Kharge, who is seeking his dues in Karnataka or Dr. G Parameshwar, both of whom are Dalits. In the event of an alliance, the JD(S) would have no objection to both these candidates.