Bihar Elections Final Phase: NDA Confronts Caste Dynamics and Regional Challenges

On June 1st, voting will be held for the final phase of the Bihar elections. There are eight seats up for grabs, all previously won by the NDA in the 2019 general elections. This time, the ruling alliance may face challenges in the Magadh-Shahabad region due to changing caste dynamics.

When Chief Minister Nitish Kumar rejoined the NDA with his JDU before the Lok Sabha elections, it seemed the NDA had regained its hold on Bihar's caste-based politics. However, political outcomes are not always predictable.

The BJP handed over state leadership to Samrat Chaudhary, a member of the Kushwaha community. They also brought in Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Samta Party. When Nitish Kumar joined, it seemed the Kushwaha vote was secured for the NDA.

However, in the Karakat Lok Sabha seat, the ruling camp is struggling to keep this vote bank. Political experts believe that even though Upendra Kushwaha is the NDA candidate from Karakat, there is disappointment among the Kushwaha community.

The independent candidacy of Pawan Singh, a former BJP leader and Bhojpuri actor, has added to this disappointment. Although expelled from the BJP, Rajput voters still support him. This has created a feeling that Pawan Singh aims to defeat Upendra Kushwaha and may later rejoin the BJP.

If the NDA does not control this damage by June 1, it could impact other seats like Arrah, Jehanabad, Buxar, and Pataliputra as well. In Jehanabad, some Bhumihars are unhappy with JDU's sitting MP Chandreshwar Chandravanshi.

There is talk of them supporting BSP candidate Arun Kumar or independent candidate Ashutosh Kumar. This is why BJP's top leadership is working hard to control damage in difficult seats during this final phase.

Out of the eight seats in this phase, five were won by BJP and 3 by JDU in 2019. However, in the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan showed strength in this area. Voting patterns can differ between Assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

The BJP has fielded former Union Minister Ram Kripal Yadav for the third time from Pataliputra. To challenge him again, RJD has fielded Misa Bharti, Lalu Prasad Yadav's elder daughter. Due to past victories and local support, BJP's morale is high here.

However, their hopes also rely on possible infighting within RJD. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held rallies in Pataliputra, Buxar, and Karakat on Saturday. Home Minister Amit Shah held meetings in Arrah and Jehanabad for NDA candidates on Friday.

BJP national president JP Nadda is also visiting Bihar and holding meetings. Overall, NDA's electoral prospects now seem to depend largely on Modi's influence. This remains their hope to correct all caste equations at the last moment.