After Parliament Passes Women’s Reservation Bill, Delimitation Fear Grips South States, Here's Why

While the DMK has welcomed the passage of women's quota bill 'Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam', it has also raised concern over the delimitation exercise that might be carried out by the Centre possibly in 2023.

DMK President and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin on Wednesday dubbed the Women's Reservation Bill in its current form a "poll gimmick" as it would come into force only after a delimitation exercise on the basis of a yet-to-be-held census.

Stalin stressed on the importance of having a quota for women of the Backward Classes and also demanded that the Centre assure the people of Tamil Nadu and the whole of South India that the delimitation exercise would do no harm to the states that have managed to control their population.

"Delimitation is like a Sword of Damocles hanging over the head of Tamil Nadu and south India. The political conspiracy to lower the political representation of south India must be outmanoeuvred," he said.

In a statement, Stalin referred to delimitation and said that the effort to betray a "politically vigilant Tamil Nadu" should be nipped in the bud.

Dubbing the Women's Bill a poll gimmick triggered by the prospect of electoral defeat, the DMK chief said it is a "strange trick" to adopt a bill now for something that is said to come into force in 2029 following a delimitation exercise on the basis of a yet-to-be-held census, for which there is also no guarantee on when it would be held.

Echoing the same views in the Parliament, DMK MP Kanimozhi said that if the delimitation was done based on population census, it would reduce the representation of southern states, making it "a sword hanging over our heads."

What Is Delimitation Exercise?

As defined by the Election Commission of India, delimitation refers to the action or procedure of establishing boundaries or limits for territorial constituencies within a country or a province with a legislative body. The responsibility of delimitation is entrusted to a high-powered body, typically referred to as the Delimitation Commission or a Boundary Commission.

So, why Is the DMK or South India worried about this exercise?

Article 81 requires that each state receive seats in proportion to its population and allocate those seats to constituencies of roughly equal size. According to the Indian Constitution, the allotment of Lok Sabha seats is to be determined by each state's population, aiming for a proportional distribution that aims for equal representation per capita across all states. This principle is aimed at upholding a sense of equal value for each vote, regardless of the state of residence.

A 2019 report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has highlighted growing disparities between states in terms of wealth and population. This has led to a lack of political representation.

The South Indian states argue that it has controlled the population growth compared to North Indian states.

In March 2023, M K Stalin said the Union government was "punishing" southern states for properly implementing population control scheme. ''To punish states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which have implemented the population control scheme in a proper manner, the number of constituencies will come down,'' he said while talking about the delimitation exercise.

"Indian states have grown at drastically different rates over the past forty years, a product of disparate-albeit slowly converging-fertility rates (see figure 1). States with slow population growth, such as the southern states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, argue that they should not be punished for curbing population growth more effectively than states with ballooning populations, such as the northern states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The northern states, in turn, argue that they have been shortchanged; after all, the notion of "one person, one vote" is a central tenet of democratic representation," a report said.

As per the report, north Indian states such as Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh would collectively gain 22 seats, while four southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu) would lose 17 seats. "Based on our population projections, these trends will only intensify as time goes on. In 2026, for instance, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh alone stand to gain 21 seats while Kerala and Tamil Nadu would forfeit as many as 16," it claimed.

Political Impact

The redistribution of seats holds significant implications for political parties. Parties with strongholds primarily in the rapidly growing northern states, such as the BJP would see a boost in power at the cost of regional parties in the south.

Historically, the funding and tax allocation suggestions to states were grounded on the 1971 Census data. However, during the Emergency in 1976, Prime Minister Indira Gandhi suspended the seat revision process until after the 2001 Census. Subsequently, in 2001, the Parliament further prolonged this suspension until the subsequent decennial census after 2026, which is slated for 2031 in accordance with the Constitution (84th Amendment) Act, 2001.

Congress leader Sivaganga MP Karti Chidambaram says, "If you start allocating seats based on population, the Southern representation as a percentage will further go down. The Southern states will be penalised for effectively implementing population control. Southern states contribute more tax per GDP. They contribute per capita more to the GDP. But then you cannot have a lesser representation for us in the Southern states and increase the representation of the North. That will be completely unacceptable," he told the media.

However, the challenge for the government is arriving at a formula which will be acceptable to all.