SIR Effect: Kerala Records Higher Polling Percentage - What Does It Signal?

The voting for 140 assembly seats in Kerala on Thursday concluded with a higher voter turnout than that of the 2021 polls. The shift is largely attributed to the state's Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

Unlike a simple paraphrase, the core function of the SIR was to purge the voter list of ineligible namesm specifically those who have died or migrated away. Consequently, the remaining electorate voted in higher proportions, mechanically driving up the published turnout percentage.

By 6 pm, the state had recorded a turnout of 78.24 per cent, slightly higher than the 74.06 per cent polling in the 2021 Assembly elections. In 2021, the average poll percentage in the state was 76.7. This time, the polling touched 77.3% by around 7pm.

Is this the effect of SIR?

Experts point directly to the electoral clean-up. As D Dhanuraj, chairman of the Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR), told The Times of India: "There are chances that the SIR helped increase the polling percentage. There may be an increase of around 2-3% due to the changes in the voters' list. In the past, when names of all those who are ineligible or died were retained, the voter turnout would normally be less. When such names are omitted, the polling percentage would automatically go up."

What does a higher vote mean?

In the context of this election, a higher raw percentage does not automatically signal a popular "wave" for a particular political front. Dhanuraj cautioned that a genuine wave can only be declared if the turnout exceeds 80%. Furthermore, behavioural shifts among voters are playing a role.

Many citizens believe that if they fail to vote after the SIR-driven revision, their names risk deletion in future updates. This has compelled even reluctant or inconvenienced voters to appear at polling stations. "Several Keralites from Delhi came back home on Wednesday only to cast their votes," the CPPR chairman noted.

While the opposition UDF hopes the surge signals its own victory, based on the old perception that last-minute voters lean towards them, the ruling LDF maintains that the rise is purely mechanical, a result of the SIR changes. The BJP, meanwhile, points to high turnout in specific constituencies like Nemom and Kazhakoottam as evidence of its growth in triangular contests.

However, historical data from Kerala firmly decouples turnout from victory. For instance, in 1987 when a record 80.54% voter turnout was recorded and in 1996, when turnout dropped to 71.16%, the LDF came to power in both elections.

Over four decades, the UDF has won four times and the LDF five times, with no consistent correlation to whether turnout was above or below 75%. Therefore, while the SIR has undoubtedly inflated this year's figures, polling percentage alone remains an unreliable predictor of which front will ultimately form the government.