Kerala Elections Predictions: Will BJP Emerge Victorious? Check This Pre-Poll Survey

The prospects of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Kerala remain modest, but the latest Manorama News-C Voter mega survey suggests the alliance could make incremental gains in the 2026 Assembly elections.

Projected to win between one and five seats, the NDA is still far from emerging as a dominant force in a state traditionally defined by bipolar contests between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF). However, its improving footprint in select urban constituencies and high-profile contests indicates a slow but steady expansion.

In key battlegrounds such as Thiruvananthapuram, the NDA is expected to be competitive. Seats like Kazhakoottam and Nemom are being closely watched, with prominent BJP leaders seen as frontrunners. This marks a shift from the 2021 Assembly elections, when the NDA failed to open its account despite a strong campaign. While the projected tally remains small, even a handful of seats would signal growing relevance for the alliance in Kerala's political landscape.

Despite these incremental gains by the NDA, the broader electoral picture points towards a clear advantage for the UDF. According to the survey, the Congress-led alliance is projected to secure between 69 and 81 seats in the 140-member Assembly, placing it within striking distance of a majority. This represents a significant recovery from its poor performance in 2021, when it managed to win only 41 seats.

The LDF, led by the CPI(M), appears to be facing the brunt of anti-incumbency after its historic consecutive term in power. The survey projects the ruling front to win between 57 and 69 seats, indicating notable losses across regions. In 2021, the LDF had secured a commanding 99 seats, defying Kerala's long-standing trend of alternating governments. The latest projections suggest that maintaining that dominance will be a challenge.

Region-wise trends further underline the shifting dynamics. In South Kerala, the LDF continues to hold an edge, particularly in Thiruvananthapuram and Alappuzha, where it is expected to retain a majority of seats. However, even here, the margins are narrowing. Pathanamthitta, which the LDF had swept in 2021, is now leaning towards the UDF, highlighting the erosion of the ruling front's support base.

Central Kerala appears to be the decisive battleground in this election. The UDF is projected to make substantial gains in districts such as Ernakulam, Kottayam and Idukki, collectively accounting for a significant chunk of seats. With an estimated 33 seats in this region alone, the UDF's resurgence here could play a crucial role in determining the final outcome. The LDF, which dominated many of these constituencies in the last election, is expected to lose ground.

In North Kerala, the picture is more mixed. The LDF is likely to retain its traditional strongholds in Kannur and parts of Kasaragod, but the UDF is consolidating its position in Malappuram and Wayanad. Kozhikode is expected to witness closely fought contests, reflecting a more competitive environment than in 2021.

The survey, based on responses from 89,693 participants collected over several months, points to a fragmented mandate shaped by local factors and candidate appeal. Many constituencies are expected to witness tight contests, where small swings in vote share could have a decisive impact.

Overall, the findings indicate that Kerala may be heading towards a change in government. While the NDA's incremental rise adds a new dimension to the contest, the primary battle remains between the UDF and the LDF. With anti-incumbency weighing on the ruling front and the opposition gaining momentum across key regions, the UDF appears better placed to return to power, though the final outcome will likely hinge on narrow margins in several crucial seats.