The Russian Coup Is Over, What Next?

The Kremlin on Sunday successfully intervened to halt the advancement of the Wagner Group, a private military organisation led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, which had posed a threat to Moscow. This development averted a potential civil war that could have disrupted the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and had significant implications for President Vladimir Putin's political career.

The details of a deal brokered by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko remain unclear, likely to never be disclosed publicly. However, the agreement led to the withdrawal of Wagner fighters from the Rostov region, and their return to Ukraine, where they have been actively involved in Russia's illegal war. Prigozhin, previously considered close to Putin, will reportedly go into exile and evade prosecution for his actions, which the Russian president denounced as "treasonous."

Despite these events, many uncertainties persist regarding the fate of the Wagner soldiers, Prigozhin, and Putin himself.

What happens next? Will the Wagner soldiers resume their incursions into Ukraine? Will Putin's rule continue? Will Prigozhin step down as the leader of Wagner and retire? What actions will Russia take?

Russia initiated efforts to restore stability on Monday morning, with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, a prime target of Prigozhin's anger, visiting Russian troops involved in the Ukraine operation. State television aired footage of Shoigu being briefed on the military situation, examining maps, and inspecting soldiers' positions during a helicopter ride.

Notably, Putin has not appeared in public since his impassioned speech on Saturday, in which he issued a stern warning to rebel Wagner soldiers and their supporters, promising "brutal action."

The West, like many others, remains perplexed, but United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that Prigozhin's actions have revealed "cracks in the Russian façade" and raised numerous new questions that Putin will have to address in the coming months.

According to reports, the US had received intelligence several days ago, indicating that Prigozhin was plotting armed action against Russian defense officials, as Bloomberg stated in its report.

Meanwhile, Ukraine hailed the rebellion, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy telling his US counterpart Joe Biden that it exposed the weaknesses of Putin's regime. Ukrainians hoped that the internal strife could provide an advantage to their army, currently engaged in a counteroffensive to reclaim territories seized by Russian forces.

What will happen to the Wagner Group soldiers?

The Wagner Group, officially known as Wagner PMC, has been credited with significant victories in Ukraine on behalf of Russia and Putin, including the capture of the city of Bakhmut after a long and bloody battle. Although their absence from the battlefield was brief and likely did not thwart Russia's plans to conquer Ukraine, it has undoubtedly bolstered the defenders.

For a brief period, the group demonstrated its prowess, capturing two cities, including Rostov, the military headquarters of the southern region. They also shot down at least three helicopters and made an audacious march toward Moscow.

Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at the CNA Research Group, remarked, "I honestly think Wagner probably did more damage to Russian aerospace forces in the past day than the Ukrainian offensive in the past three weeks."

Given their capabilities, it is unlikely that Moscow will overtly launch retaliatory action against the Wagner fighters who joined Prigozhin. The Russian defense ministry offered these fighters some form of amnesty on Saturday.

According to the Associated Press, those who did not support Prigozhin will be offered contracts by the Russian military, placing them under the command of those whom he sought to oust.

What will happen to Yevgeny Prigozhin?

Prigozhin was last seen on Saturday evening, departing Rostov in a car while receiving both cheers and jeers from locals. His current whereabouts remain unknown.

The Wagner chief accepted the deal to "avoid bloodshed" and is reportedly exiled to Belarus, a close ally of Putin under Lukashenko's leadership.

However, this development raises more questions than answers. Speculation suggests that Prigozhin is unlikely to enter Belarus and may choose to remain in Ukraine or even seek refuge in Africa, where the Wagner Group is active under various contracts. Analysts believe that he may prefer to continue operating in Ukraine, where he can maintain relative freedom among loyalists.

Michael Horowitz, a geopolitical and security analyst, expressed his opinion, stating, "Going to Belarus may be an option - he seems to know and trust Lukashenko... but he would still be in danger there... my best bet is he will continue to operate in Ukraine, rather than Belarus, where he can justify maintaining relative freedom among men loyal to him," as told to NBC News.