Shigeru Ishiba All Set To Be Japan's New PM, Calls It 'Final Attempt'

Former Defence Minister of Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, is poised to become the country's next prime minister after securing victory in a tightly contested leadership race on Friday.

This marked his fifth and, as he called it, "final attempt" to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).

The 67-year-old veteran politician defeated hard-line nationalist Sanae Takaichi in a run-off vote in what was one of the most unpredictable leadership contests in recent memory, featuring a record nine candidates.

As leader of the LDP, which has governed Japan for nearly the entire post-war period, Ishiba is effectively guaranteed to become the next prime minister due to the party's majority in parliament. A special parliamentary session is scheduled for Tuesday to formally vote him into office, reported Reuters.

In an emotional speech to LDP lawmakers after his victory, Ishiba said, "We must believe in the people, speak the truth with courage and sincerity, and work together to make Japan a safe and secure country where everyone can live with a smile once again."

The race to replace outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was triggered in August when Kishida announced his resignation following a series of scandals that severely damaged the LDP's popularity, pushing its approval ratings to record lows.

Known as a "lone wolf," Ishiba's independent-minded views and frequent clashes with party colleagues led to four previous unsuccessful bids for the party leadership.

Despite this, he has maintained strong popularity with the general public, though he described this race as his "final battle."

With a general election expected within the next 13 months, analysts suggest Ishiba's selection reflects the party's willingness to set aside internal differences to leverage his public appeal.

Jeffrey Hall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies, noted that LDP members seem to have "gravitated towards a popular figure who does well in media appearances and isn't afraid to criticise his own party when he thinks they're in the wrong."

The yen strengthened against the dollar after news of Ishiba's victory, reversing earlier declines when it was announced he would face Takaichi, a proponent of monetary easing and fiscal expansion, in the run-off.

Ishiba now faces numerous challenges, both domestically and internationally. He must address public discontent over rising living costs and manage the fallout from the scandals that have plagued his party. Internationally, he must navigate a tense security environment in East Asia, marked by an increasingly assertive China and the threat posed by nuclear-armed North Korea.

Ishiba's diplomatic approach, particularly regarding Japan's relationship with its closest ally, the United States, will be under scrutiny.

He has previously advocated for a more balanced relationship with Washington and has called for the creation of an Asian NATO, a proposal that could provoke reaction from China and has already been dismissed as premature by a senior US official.

US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel congratulated Ishiba via a post on X, stating he looked forward to working with him to strengthen the US-Japan alliance.

Meanwhile, a spokesperson for China's foreign ministry responded to Ishiba's appointment by expressing hope that Japan would maintain an "objective and correct" understanding of China.

Ishiba began his political career in 1986 after a brief stint in banking. His outspoken positions have made him a controversial figure within the LDP.

He was marginalised by the outgoing Prime Minister Kishida but gained robust support from the party's rank-and-file members and the general public.

Among the issues that Ishiba has rebelled against are the increased use of nuclear energy, a topic that remains highly sensitive following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. He has also criticised his party's stance on maintaining a ban on married couples using separate surnames.

Hideki Masui, the head of the pro-nuclear energy group Japan Atomic Industrial Forum, expressed hope on Friday that Ishiba's leadership would continue to promote nuclear power, which he argued is crucial to Japan's energy security.

To stabilise his leadership within the LDP, Ishiba will need to form a cabinet that draws from a broad base of support, according to Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at The Asia Group Japan.

"If he just rewards the people who supported him, that's going to cause a lot of trouble with the people who supported Takaichi and the people who dislike him," Nishimura warned.

Ishiba is expected to announce his cabinet lineup following Tuesday's parliamentary session.