Nawaz Sharif Or Bilawal Bhutto: Who Will Win Pakistan Elections, What Lies Ahead, Implications For India

With former prime minister Imran Khan in jail, the emergence of Nawaz Sharif's PML-N as the single largest party in the Pakistan elections is anticipated.

Pakistan is holding its 12th national general elections on Thursday, February 8, to elect a new government, with multiple crises plaguing the nuclear-armed country of 241 million.

Will it be Nawaz Sharif this time?

It is expected that Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz will emerge as the single-largest party, followed by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's Pakistan Peoples Party as a distant second, and then the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf of Imran Khan and other parties, as reported by The News.

While former prime minister Imran Khan remains in jail, Nawaz Sharif is tipped to emerge as the main face for the prime minister's post. Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf or PTI candidates are contesting the polls independently after the Supreme Court upheld the decision of the election commission to deprive the PTI of its iconic election symbol cricket 'bat', reported Hindustan Times.

Nawaz Sharif, 74, will be eying the prime ministership for a record fourth time in Thursday's election. The contest also involves the PPP of Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, who has been declared as the party's prime minister face.

What lies ahead for the new PM?

A daunting task awaits whoever wins the February 8 elections due to the dwindling economy and deteriorating security situation. Last year, a default was narrowly averted by Pakistan when the International Monetary Fund or IMF provided a $3 billion short-term loan.

Economic experts believe that an urgent new IMF program will be needed by the new government on more stringent conditions. Pakistan's fight against terrorism, which spans over two decades, is also unravelling as the rebels have resurged since 2021 after the Afghan Taliban came to power, as reported by Hindustan Times.

Dealing with the militancy of the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and Baloch nationalists will be tougher for the new government. On its eastern border, fresh tensions have risen after India was accused by Islamabad of running an assassination campaign inside Pakistan, a claim that has been completely rejected by New India.

Pakistan's assertion of evidence implicating Indian agents in the targeted killings of two Pakistani citizens on its soil was strongly rejected by India on January 25, dismissing it as "false and malicious anti-India propaganda".

India's Perspective on Pakistan's 2024 Election

The Lok Sabha elections in India by May are anticipated, and a return to power for the Narendra Modi-led government with a heavy mandate could further complicate matters for Pakistan's new government.

The extent of the Pakistan Army's influence on the country's politics has become widely recognized, with allegations of election manipulation to favour its preferred candidates. In the 2018 elections, Imran Khan was effectively "selected" by the Pakistan Army to replace Nawaz Sharif as the leader of the PML(N).

Imran Khan assumed the role of prime minister after Nawaz Sharif's conviction. However, Nawaz Sharif was subsequently permitted to leave the country and only returned in October 2023, when suddenly all the cases against him vanished into thin air, as per Hindustan Times.

It has been indicated by experts that this time, Nawaz Sharif has the blessings of the army. Former high commissioner of India to Islamabad Ajay Bisaria said, "What is scheduled to happen on February 8 seems less like an election and more like a selection because Pakistan's Army has shown us in the past few days what result they are desiring in the upcoming elections. They want Nawaz Sharif to be selected," according to ANI.

In the Pakistan election 2024, Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir will consolidate his authority over the political leadership of the country. The elections are significant as they mark the first time in the history of Pakistan that the popularity of a civilian leader (Imran Khan) challenged the dominance of the army.

All activities in Pakistan are to be closely monitored by New Delhi ahead of the elections, particularly focusing on the Pakistan Army's involvement in selecting the next prime minister. Concerns about Pakistan's ongoing support for terrorism have been persistently raised by India, prompting the Narendra Modi-led government to adopt a stricter stance on national security matters.

In recent statements, Nawaz Sharif has shown a willingness to engage with India and has recognized the neighbouring country's global progress. However, his party's manifesto states a commitment to pursue peace with India only if New Delhi reverses its decision to revoke Article 370, which granted special status to Jammu and Kashmir.

A significant achievement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's foreign policy has been the marginalization of Pakistan in India's diplomatic agenda, a strategy that has proven effective thus far, according to Money Control.

This approach allows India to remain nonchalant about shifts in power in Islamabad while still adhering to the principle articulated by former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee: "We can change our friends but not our neighbours."