Hasina In Power, China In Play: Is It Time For India To Rethink Its Diplomatic Moves In Bangladesh?

Awami League supremo Sheikh Hasina will be the Prime Minister of Bangladesh again for the fourth consecutive time. This year's election was a controversial one from the very beginning, with hardly any opposition parties involved. This raised questions about the fairness and legitimacy of the process: Would it be a free and fair election? Could democracy truly prevail without a robust opposition?

Out of 300 seats in the Bangladesh parliament election, the Awami League secured 75% of the seats. Independent candidates, many of whom are considered aligned with the Awami League, won 62 seats. The only remaining opposition party, the Bangladesh Jatiyo Party, holds just 11 seats.

This means the Awami League has effectively secured another 5-year term, with Sheikh Hasina continuing as Prime Minister. The question of who will serve as the opposition party leader remains unanswered. For India, however, the concerns are different: Will another five years of Sheikh Hasina's leadership benefit New Delhi?

From a Bangladeshi perspective, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has expressed a desire for continued close ties with India. On election day, she even extended her well wishes to India and highlighted India's crucial role in Bangladesh's 1971 Liberation War.

India, in turn, views Sheikh Hasina's Awami League as a reliable ally. The opposition, led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), is often perceived as hostile and inclined towards anti-India elements. With the Awami League at the helm, India has enjoyed good bilateral relations and secure borders.

Is India Still A Reliable Friend Of Bangladesh?

However, India faces a dilemma: Sheikh Hasina's government has also allowed for increasing Chinese influence in Bangladesh. China has invested heavily in infrastructure projects, become Bangladesh's largest trade partner, and even provided military equipment. This mirrors China's strategy of investing heavily in India's neighboring countries like Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka, potentially aiming to encircle India. While Bangladesh portrays India as its close friend and strategic partner, China's position as their largest trade partner, worth over 25 billion US dollars, and its involvement in building crucial infrastructure projects like the Padma River Bridge, highlight a deepening relationship.

Chinese Investments and Defense Alliances: A Growing Concern for India

Chinese investment is pouring into Bangladesh, not just in development but also in defense. Over the past decade, China has supplied arms, ammunition, military tanks, and fighter jets to Bangladesh. Ten years ago, Bangladesh procured submarines from China and provided them with a naval base. This situation, especially for Indians, raises concerns as it brings a Bangladeshi naval base close to India, potentially allowing China to monitor India using this base.

Both India and China appear content with this scenario, but it might be time to reconsider.

Therefore, as the Indian government, it's imperative to ensure that the agreed-upon terms between nations are being upheld. While the recent Bangladesh election drew criticism from the USA and Western nations regarding the role of Sheikh Hasina's government, India has been restrained in its reactions. Pressuring Bangladesh on its internal affairs could inadvertently push them closer to China, a situation India seeks to avoid.

Additionally, the interests of both India and China align with Sheikh Hasina's Awami League government. Both nations believe that her administration will serve their interests, raising further concerns for India.