Explained: What Potential Do PTI-backed 'Independents' Hold In Pak Election 2024, How It Can Be A Gamechanger?

Results for the Pakistani polls have begun trickling in slowly, revealing that 'Independent' candidates backed by Imran Khan's Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) are leading ahead of candidates from Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

Despite being widely anticipated to return to power with backing from the establishment, Sharif, the former prime minister, faces a setback in the current electoral scenario.

Imran, on the other hand, remains incarcerated due to convictions in multiple cases. In the National Assembly being contested, a party needs to secure 133 seats out of 265 to form the next government. The status of the 'Independent' candidates in the polls and their potential as gamechangers are topics of interest.

Pakistan Election Results: PTI candidates take lead

Provisional results released by the Election Commission of Pakistan indicate that thus far, 29 seats have been won by 'Independent' candidates backed by the PTI, as per FirstPost report. PTI candidates are contesting as Independents after being disallowed from using the party symbol of a cricket bat.

Meanwhile, the PML-N and Pakistan People's Party (PPP) have secured 27 and 18 seats respectively. According to the ECP, PTI leader barrister Gohar Ali Khan emerged victorious in NA-10 in the Buner area of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa with 110,023 votes, defeating Awami National Party candidate Abdul Rauf, who secured second place with 30,302 votes.

Former speaker of the National Assembly Asad Qaiser has also emerged victorious, winning NA-19 from Swabi with 115,635 votes, while JUI-F's Fazal Ali came second with 45,567 votes.PTI-backed candidate Shahid Ahmad Khattak secured victory in the NA-38 seat from Karak, while PTI-backed candidates Zulfiqar Khan and Yousif Khan have won the NA-34 and NA-36 seats from Nowshera II and Hangu/Orakzai respectively.

PTI-backed candidate Mujahid Ali clinched victory in the NA-21 seat from Mardan I, while PTI-backed candidate Shahrah Khan Tarakai emerged victorious in the NA-20 seat from Swabi II. In the NA-5 seat in Upper Dir, PTI-backed candidate Sahibzada Sibghatullah emerged victorious with 37,484 votes, while PTI-backed candidate Mehboob Shah secured victory in the NA-7 seat in Lower Dir with 20,346 votes.

PTI-backed candidate Junaid Akbar emerged victorious in NA-9 in Malakand with 113,513 votes, while PTI-backed Muhammad Nawaz Khan secured victory in the NA-13 seat from Battagram. In Jhang's NA-109 constituency, PTI-backed candidate Sheikh Waqas Akram emerged victorious, while Muhammad Arshad Sahi, also a PTI-affiliated hopeful, won the NA-111 seat from Nankana Sahib, reported The Dawn.

In Sahiwal II, PTI-backed candidate Usman Ali secured victory in the NA-142 seat, while PTI-backed Independent candidates Saleem Rehman and Suhail Sultan emerged victorious in NA-3 and NA-4 in Swat respectively. PTI-backed Independent candidate Anwar Taj emerged victorious in the NA-24 seat from Charsadda, while PTI-backed Independent candidate Syed Shah Ahad Ali Shah defeated PTI-Parliamentarians' Pervez Khattak to win from Nowshera's NA-33.

In Swat-I, PTI-backed Independent candidate Amjad Ali Khan secured victory in the NA-2 seat, while PTI-backed candidate Muhammad Atif emerged victorious in NA-22 in Mardan II. PTI-backed candidate Fazal Muhammad Khan secured victory in NA-25 Charsadda II, while PTI-backed candidate Waseem Qadir clinched victory in NA-121 Lahore V.

PTI-backed candidate Fazal Khan also emerged victorious in NA-25 Charsadda. PTI-backed Independent candidates Muhammad Abdul Salam and Sultan Room secured victory from PK-58 Mardan and PK-9 Swat respectively. The winners of two seats for the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial Assembly were announced by the Election Commission of Pakistan.

According to the commission, Independent candidate Samiullah Khan secured victory with 18,888 votes, while Independent candidate Fazal Hakeem Khan took 25,330 votes. Independent candidate Ali Shah emerged victorious in Swat's PK-4 constituency.

PTI-backed candidate Sher Ali Afridi secured victory in Peshawar's PK-77 constituency. PTI-affiliated candidate Shandana Gulzar secured victory in Peshawar's NA-30. PTI-backed Independent candidate Riaz Khan emerged victorious in Buner's PK-25 constituency.

PTI-backed Independent Hameedur Rahman prevailed in Bajaur's PK-19 constituency. PTI-backed candidate Ali Khan Jadoon secured victory in the NA 17 Abbottabad seat. PTI-backed Independent Zubair Khan emerged triumphant in PK-34 Battagram. PTI-backed candidate Saleem Rehman was victorious in Swat's NA-3. PTI-backed Independent candidate Iftikharullah Jan secured victory in PK-64 Charsadda III.

Meanwhile, claims were made by Rehana Dar that the returning officer in her constituency was not allowing her to enter the polling station. PTI-backed candidate Basharat Raja in Rawalpindi's NA-55 constituency claimed discrepancies between Form 45 and Form 47 results.

He alleged victory by a margin of 50,000 seats and claimed his opponent "did not win from any polling station in the entire constituency". A statement by Khan claimed that the PTI has won over 150 National Assembly seats and is positioned to form governments in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. The ECP was urged by Khan to announce all results without further delay. Meanwhile, ex-PTI leader and defense minister Pervaiz Khattak lost his seat.

Where do PML-N and PPP stand in this Election 2024?

For the PML-N, Dr. Yasmin Rashid, backed by PTI, was defeated by Sharif by a massive margin of 56,000 votes, with Sharif receiving 171,024 votes compared to Rashid's 115,043 votes. Sharif's younger brother and ex-premier Shehbaz Sharif was also victorious. NA-118 in Lahore-II was won by Sharif's son Hamza Shehbaz with 105,960 votes, defeating Aliya Hamza Malik, a PTI-backed Independent candidate, by 5,000 votes.

In the NA-119 seat in Lahore, Sharif's daughter Maryam Nawaz emerged victorious, receiving 83,855 votes and defeating PTI-backed Shehzad Farooq, who received 68,376 votes. All four family members secured victories from Lahore, their home and the party's stronghold.

Meanwhile, the NA-207 seat from Shaheed Benazirabad was won by PPP leader and former president Asif Ali Zardari with 146,989 votes, defeating PTI-backed Independent candidate Sardar Sher Muhammad Rind Baloch, who received 51,916 votes. Bilawal Bhutto, Zardari's son and PPP chief, secured victory in the NA-196 seat in Qamber Shahdadtkot-I with 85,370 votes.

Will the PTI's win be a gamechanger?

PTI's chief organiser Omar Ayub Khan stated that Independent candidates could potentially form their own government if they were to obtain a two-thirds majority, reported NDTV. "It has been stated in a video statement released to media that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf-backed independent candidates have the potential to form the next federal government with a two-thirds majority," he said.

It was noted by the outlet that Independents could also potentially ally with one of the other parties to establish a coalition regime. The Economic Times observed that a new government could also challenge Imran's jail terms and void his ban on holding office, thereby allowing him to participate in future polls.

PML-N leader Ishaq Dar, an aide to Sharif, is possibly already considering the formation of a unity government. As per Geo TV, Dar mentioned that his party might form a coalition government with Independents.

"I am confident that a government will be formed," Dar remarked. He further added that his party would step aside if any clear winner emerged. This development has been viewed as a surprise by experts. "There was a sense of certainty about the outcome," noted Sarah Khan, an assistant professor of political science at Yale University, in a statement to AFP. "That sense of certainty got upset very early on," she added. "It's definitely not the foregone conclusion that anybody thought it might be."

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, expressed to AFP that the delay "suggests that the powers that be are trying to create an environment that allows them to more easily be involved in the electoral process".

"Vote tampering and rigging fears are rife, and for good reason," he was more blunt in expressing on X. Analysts have also predicted that there may be no clear winner, exacerbating the challenges of a country grappling with recovering from an economic crisis while contending with escalating militant violence in a deeply polarized political environment.

"A timely announcement of the results, leading to a smooth formation of a new government will reduce policy and political uncertainty," stated Moody's Investors Service. "This is crucial for the country that is facing very challenging macroeconomic conditions."

More than 650,000 army, paramilitary, and police personnel were deployed to provide security on Thursday. A total of 51 attacks nationwide were reported by the army, resulting in a dozen fatalities including 10 security force members - fewer than in 2018 when dozens were killed.

Thursday's election had a similar air to that poll, but with the tables turned. Then, it was Sharif who was disqualified from running because of a string of convictions for graft, while Khan swept to power with the backing of the military, as well as genuine support.

The history of Pakistan's elections is checkered with allegations of rigging but also favoritism, said Bilal Gilani, executive director of polling group Gallup Pakistan. "It's a managed democracy that the military runs," he remarked,

Results delayed to rig outcome

The elections were claimed to have been won by PTI, with allegations that results were being delayed to rig the outcome. In a statement from the PTI official handle on X, it was stated that more than 150 NA seats out of 265 were won by PTI based on data received in Form 45s. It was asserted that copies of these forms had been collected by PTI candidates' polling agents, showing them winning by a large majority.

PTI also claimed to have won well over 150 National Assembly seats according to independent reports, positioning them to form governments in Federal, Punjab & KP. Manipulation of results in the late hours of the night was denounced as an utter disgrace and a brazen theft of the nation's mandate.

PTI alleged that its mandate was being stolen despite a record turnout on polling day, with every independent candidate backed by PTI reportedly winning by a landslide. Reports of abduction of polling agents and forced signing of fake Form 45s were also mentioned. The ECP has remained silent despite these claims.