AP Surveys Delegates on Support for Democratic Nominee After Biden Endorses Harris

President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the reelection race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly altered the Democratic presidential nomination landscape. This unexpected move has introduced uncertainty into what was previously a straightforward contest against Republican former President Donald Trump.

The Associated Press (AP) is now surveying nearly 4,000 pledged delegates to gauge their support for potential candidates. This survey aims to determine which candidate they plan to back for the party's presidential nominee or if they remain undecided. The results of this survey will be updated regularly.

Democratic National Convention

The Democratic National Convention is set for August 19-22 in Chicago. During this event, delegates will officially vote to select the party's nominee. Under Democratic Party rules, delegates are free to support any candidate they choose and can change their minds until the official vote takes place.

AP's survey is conducted by contacting delegates individually through phone, email, social media, or personal interviews. Public statements by delegates indicating their support for a candidate are also included in the tally. Additionally, confirmations from state parties about their delegation's support are counted.

Delegate Support Dynamics

Candidates typically secure delegates based on their performance in primaries and caucuses. These delegates are pledged to support that candidate at the convention. However, party rules state that delegates are pledged only as a matter of "good conscience," and historically, they rarely break their pledge.

Biden had amassed enough delegate support by March 12 through primary and caucus victories to unofficially clinch the nomination. He had secured backing from 3,896 out of 3,949 eligible delegates for the first round of voting at the convention.

Impact of Biden's Withdrawal

Biden's exit means those delegates must now find a new candidate to support. Biden cannot transfer his delegates to Harris or any other candidate. These delegates are now free agents who can support any candidate or change their minds without any party rules binding them to a specific choice.

If Harris receives majority support in the AP survey, those delegates could still change their minds later. Therefore, no candidate can be deemed the "presumptive nominee" until they win a majority of pledged delegates through the official selection process.

Current Survey Results

The latest AP survey results show overwhelming support for Harris among contacted delegates. As of Monday afternoon, over 700 delegates have indicated their support for her, with none supporting other candidates. If Harris secures backing from 1,976 delegates eligible to vote in the first round, she will enter the convention as the clear front-runner.

In past presidential campaigns, AP has surveyed more than 700 superdelegates who automatically serve as convention delegates due to their positions within the party. These include sitting Democratic governors, US senators and representatives, members of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), former presidents, and past DNC chairs.

Superdelegates used to vote alongside pledged delegates in the first round at conventions. However, rule changes after the 2016 election now bar them from voting until the second round. If no candidate heads into the convention with a clear majority of delegates, AP will also survey current superdelegates.

This evolving situation highlights the fluid nature of delegate support and underscores the importance of ongoing surveys and updates as Democrats prepare for their national convention in August.