COP28 Draft Excludes Fossil Fuel Phase-Out, Proposes Production and Consumption Cut

The COP28 draft global stocktake suggests reducing fossil fuel production and consumption but omits their phase-out, facing pushback from fossil-fuel reliant economies.

As the COP28 climate negotiations in Dubai entered their final hours, negotiators unveiled the latest draft of the global stocktake, a critical document that notably excludes any mention of phasing out fossil fuels. Despite the absence of this crucial language, the draft suggests the possibility of countries agreeing to reduce fossil fuel production and consumption for the first time in UN climate conference history.

Fossil Fuel Phase-Out: A Contentious Issue

Several countries and the European Union have emphasized that a deal to phase out all fossil fuels would signify success for COP28. However, strong pushback from fossil-fuel reliant economies, such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, has hindered progress on this front. Saudi Arabia and Iraq possess significant oil reserves, ranking second and fifth globally, respectively.

Options for Emissions Reduction

While the earlier draft presented four options for a fossil fuel phase-out, none made it to the latest version. Instead, the updated draft lists eight options aimed at slashing greenhouse gas emissions. These include reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels in a just, orderly, and equitable manner to achieve net-zero emissions by, before, or around 2050, in line with scientific recommendations.

Stringent Language on Coal, Lack of Mention on Oil and Gas

The draft includes stringent language regarding coal, potentially impacting heavily coal-dependent countries like India and China. It calls for rapidly phasing down unabated coal and imposing limitations on new and unabated coal power generation. However, there is no mention of oil and gas in the 21-page document, despite their significant contribution to global CO2 emissions.

Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

The draft acknowledges the importance of tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency rates by 2030, but lacks specific details. The International Energy Agency emphasizes the criticality of achieving these goals to avoid exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature threshold.

Equity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities

The document references equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, principles that developing countries have advocated for. These principles recognize that countries' efforts to combat climate change should consider their contributions to total emissions and that wealthier nations should bear primary responsibilities due to their substantial historical emissions. However, there is a noticeable absence of language in the adaptation section regarding the obligation of developed countries to provide finance.

Challenges and Opportunities

Despite the omission of explicit fossil fuel phase-out language, observers believe it could still be included in the final text if nations push hard and commit to rapidly scaling up finance for poor and developing countries. However, there is a lack of strong acknowledgement of the need for differentiation, which could hinder consensus.

The latest draft of the global stocktake reflects the complex negotiations and competing interests at COP28. While the absence of a clear commitment to phasing out fossil fuels is disappointing, there is still an opportunity for progress if countries demonstrate strong political will and a commitment to addressing the climate crisis. The success of COP28 hinges on securing a robust agreement that aligns with scientific recommendations and ensures a just and equitable transition to a sustainable future.