Lok Sabha Elections 2019: What is at stake for BJP and Congress
New Delhi, May 22: An overwhelming majority of exit polls has predicted a return of the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government. We will have to wait till May 23 to know whether they are right or not.
Twelve of 14 exit polls predicted that the NDA will get full majority with seats ranging from 282 to 365. An aggregate of exit polls predicted the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will win 302 seats and the Congress and its allies 122. A party or an alliance needs 271 seats to form the government, as the elections were held on 542 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats.
They, however, differed on the numbers, and the range hovered from a high of 316 for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a low of 202. For the Congress, the numbers ranged from a low of 46 seats to a high of 107.
So, in that case What are the prospects of BJP and Congress? There are chances of smaller parties playing a decisive role in the formation of the next government in the instances of the two biggest parties falling short of seats. Here we take a look at what could happen on May 23.
Modi's return as PM?
Most exit polls predicted a clear majority to BJP-led NDA, some with seeing the party garner over 300 seats, out of total 542 Lok Sabha seats polled. The NDA, according to the exit polls, is also seen making gains in Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh.
India Today-My Axis and Chanakya exit polls predicted a landslide win for the BJP-led alliance with over 350 seats. In that case, Modi's return as PM will be a cakewalk with the BJP having a majority on its own and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies supplementing its strength in Parliament.
If the BJP gets less than 272 seats?
It could push BJP's tally withing sniffing distance of a majority, and along with the allies, Modi may get a second term as prime minister. There are at least three major regional parties which can come to the BJP's rescue namely the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the YSR Congress (YSRCP). These three regioal leaders may join the NDA if they form the government at the Centre.
What if BJP alliance gets less than 225 seats?
Another scenario is that the BJP alliance not only fails to get 272 but gets less than 225 seats. In this scenario, the Grand Old Party is likely to forge an alliance with several like-minded non-UPA parties such as Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress, Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party, Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party, KCR's Telangana Rashtra Samithi and Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party.
If Congress gets 140-160 seats?
This will mean Congress and others having made significant gains. A low BJP number could set the stage for a Congress-led government. It will almost certainly mean BJP sits in the opposition. It will still command numbers likely to be more than Congress. A large block of regional parties and Congress will, however, favour proponents of an anti-BJP coalition.