Indus Water Treaty Suspended: Major Pakistani Cities to Face Water and Power Blackouts

In the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack, which has been linked to cross-border elements, India's top national security decision-making body-the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS)-has taken decisive action against Pakistan. The CCS has opted to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with immediate and indefinite effect.

The suspension of this long-standing treaty marks a significant escalation, as it will halt the flow of water from the Indus river system-which includes the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej rivers-into Pakistan. These rivers are vital to Pakistan's water supply, supporting tens of millions of people.

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

The Indus Waters Treaty, a landmark water-sharing agreement, was signed on September 19, 1960, with the World Bank acting as a mediator. The pact was signed in Karachi by then Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani President Field Marshal Ayub Khan.

Despite enduring three wars between India and Pakistan-in 1965, 1971, and 1999-the treaty remained intact until now.

Under the agreement:

• India was allocated control over the eastern rivers - Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej - which have an average annual flow of about 41 billion cubic meters.
• Pakistan retained control over the western rivers - Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab - with a combined annual flow of around 99 billion cubic meters.

This distribution meant Pakistan received about 70% of the total waters of the Indus river system, even though much of the system originates in India.

The treaty's preamble emphasized mutual cooperation and goodwill, aiming for the optimal use of water resources across the two countries.

How Was the Water Divided?

The agreement essentially divided the six major rivers of the Indus basin between the two countries:

India: Ravi, Beas, Sutlej

Pakistan: Indus, Jhelum, Chenab

Now, with the treaty's suspension, India signals a dramatic shift in its posture, with potentially far-reaching consequences for water management and diplomacy in the region.

Why Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty Could Be a Catastrophe for Pakistan

The Indus River system is not merely important to Pakistan-it forms the foundation of its survival.

Nearly 80% of Pakistan's arable land, totaling around 16 million hectares, depends on this water system.

A staggering 93% of the water from the Indus is channelled into irrigation, making it the lifeblood of the country's agriculture.

With over 237 million people living in the basin-61% of whom are in Pakistan-the impact of disrupted flows would be far-reaching.

• Major cities such as Karachi, Lahore, and Multan source their drinking water from these rivers.
• Key hydropower stations like Tarbela and Mangla are also tied to consistent river flows.

Agriculture contributes nearly a quarter of Pakistan's GDP and supports critical crops like wheat, rice, cotton, and sugarcane. Already listed among the most water-scarce nations globally, Pakistan is witnessing a sharp drop in per capita water availability. A disruption in flows from the Indus, Chenab, or Jhelum could lead to:

• A collapse in crop production, raising fears of food insecurity.
• A water crisis in urban areas, potentially sparking social unrest.
• Disruption of hydropower generation, stalling factories and darkening homes.
• A surge in loan defaults, job losses, and rural-to-urban migration.

India's suspension of the treaty signals a historic policy shift. While New Delhi has previously warned of reconsidering the pact following past attacks, this marks the first formal suspension. The decision strategically targets Pakistan's most vulnerable sectors: agriculture, water, food, and energy security.

Under normal conditions, India utilises its allocated share of 33 million acre-feet from the eastern rivers for irrigation and hydropower in states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan. However, the treaty restricts India's ability to influence Pakistan's access to water. By suspending the agreement, India would regain complete control over the river flows.

Pakistan has yet to issue an official response, but any reduction in water supply is likely to ignite diplomatic tensions, legal disputes, and possibly involve international intermediaries such as the World Bank.