Minor Parties Poised To Shake Up Maharashtra Assembly Election Result: Can They Split The Vote?

In the upcoming elections, smaller parties may have a bigger impact than anticipated, as per the Hindustan Times report. Over 15 parties are participating, often with little chance of major wins. Their involvement is sometimes to boost regional pride or maintain their presence on the ballot. However, these parties might influence election outcomes by splitting votes in various constituencies.

Four minor parties are contesting over 100 seats each out of a total of 288. Others are vying for 40 seats or fewer. While their candidates might not win, they could reduce victory margins, making contests more competitive. In closely contested elections, their role could be significant in determining results.

Photo Credit: PTI

Impact Of Smaller Parties

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), led by Mayawati, is contesting 239 seats. Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), under Prakash Ambedkar's leadership, is running for 199 seats. Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and Rashtriya Samaj Paksha are contesting 135 and 119 seats respectively. These parties aim to gain recognition and influence election narratives.

BSP leader Uttan Shevde stated their goal is state-level party recognition. To achieve this, they need at least 6% of valid votes and two seat wins. "Even though we are contesting 239 seats, we are focusing on 25 seats, which we are hoping to win," Shevde said.

Strategic Alliances And Contestations
Some smaller parties form alliances like Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) but also engage in friendly contests. The Samajwadi Party (SP) competes for two MVA partner seats and seven independently. Similarly, CPI-M and PWP participate as MVA allies while contesting additional seats separately.

The Azad Samaj Party (ASP) is contesting 40 seats; AIMIM led by Asaduddin Owaisi has fielded candidates in 16; and Hitendra Thakur's Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) is running for six seats. These parties' limited presence can still affect vote distribution significantly.

Personal Battles And Community Issues

Imtiyaz Jaleel of AIMIM faces personal battles in some constituencies. In Mumbai's Mankhurd-Shivaji Nagar constituency, AIMIM and VBA candidates challenge SP chief Abu Asim Azmi and NCP's Nawab Malik in a Muslim-majority area. Jaleel remarked on an understanding with Azmi that was breached: "We had a sort of understanding with Abu Asim Azmi that we would not field candidates against each other."

Sambhajiraje Chhatrapati leads Maharashtra Swarajya Paksh, which may split the Maratha vote due to reservation issues for the community. This division could heavily influence election outcomes.

New Political Fronts

Raju Shetti heads Swabhimani Paksha within Parivartan Mahashakti, a third front comprising eight political outfits contesting 111 seats. "We want to bring in new blood, a fresh breed of politicians with a clean image," Shetti told Hindustan Times.

The VBA aims to consolidate the OBC community against Maratha leader Manoj Jarange-Patil's reservation demands from the OBC quota. Despite underwhelming performance in the 2019 elections without winning any seat, VBA played a crucial role in defeating Congress and NCP candidates in eight Lok Sabha constituencies that year.

1. BSP contested 239 seats but did not win any in 2019.
2. VBA contested 199 seats but did not win any in 2019.
3. MNS contested 135 seats and won one seat in 2019.
4. Rashtriya Samaj Paksha contested 119 seats but did not win any in 2019.
5. BVA did not contest seats but has three MLAs.
6. AIMIM, Prahar Janshakti Party, SP, and CPI(M) each contested but won two seats. SP and CPI(M) each won one seat, and RSP did not win any.

The participation of smaller parties adds complexity to the elections. Their ability to split votes could shape outcomes significantly despite limited chances of winning major victories themselves.