Was Sheikh Hasina's China Tilt A Factor Behind Her Downfall?

While Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Khaleda Zia has justified Islamist murderous fury against minority Hindus and Indian establishments as anger against India for giving refuge to Sheikh Hasina, the fact remains that the ousted PM's leanings towards China and antipathy towards the West caused her political downfall.

Despite the West installing Muhammad Yunus as chief advisor of Bangladesh's interim government, the country is grappling with an economic crisis and a challenge from the rabid Islamist forces of Jamaat-e-Islami and Hefazat-e-Islam, reported Hindustan Times.

Photo Credit: PTI

With the Bangladesh police on strike, Army Chief General Waker-us-Zaman will have to confront the extremist forces that have already radicalised the youth and are using political Islam to gain power.

While the Narendra Modi government tried its best to reconcile Sheikh Hasina with the US and UK, "the Indian national security establishment knew that Sheikh Hasina and the US had mutual dislike for each other."

The American adverse reaction to Sheikh Hasina was more due to her allowing China to build a submarine base in Pekua, Cox's Bazaar, and purchasing two Ming-class submarines from Beijing rather than her adherence to multi-party democracy.

"Built by a Chinese company, the naval base is aptly called BNS Sheikh Hasina."

Given that Bangladesh juts into the sensitive Siliguri corridor, New Delhi was also displeased with its credit line being used by Dhaka for buying military equipment from countries like China and Turkey while neglecting India.

Before her ouster, "visiting Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Dinesh Tripathi offered to build frigates for Bangladesh."

Sheikh Hasina's ties with China were a significant concern.

"While Bangladesh, under Sheikh Hasina, was opposed to Pakistan, its proximity towards China and deepening bilateral military cooperation had raised red flags in New Delhi and Washington."

Bangladesh's military reliance on Chinese equipment-from artillery guns to main battle tanks, missiles, submarines, and fighters-poses a serious challenge to QUAD's Indo-Pacific strategy, with China already having bases in Cambodia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Iran.

Adding to this pro-China tilt was evidence that "Bangladesh's civilian-military bureaucracy had been compromised by Beijing, just like in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Pakistan, and Myanmar."

It was only after India informed Sheikh Hasina that Bangladesh refused permission for the Chinese-built frigate for the Pakistan Navy, PNS Taimur, to dock at Chattogram Port from August 7-10 while en route to Karachi via Colombo.

Much to Sheikh Hasina's surprise, "her bureaucracy had already cleared the docking of PNS Taimur without informing her."

Although adversaries of India may celebrate Sheikh Hasina's exit and label it as a diplomatic defeat for Modi, "Dhaka will have to seek Indian support as the country faces a looming loan default and economic crisis."

Just like Sri Lanka and Pakistan, economic turmoil will fuel political unrest, enabling pan-Islamic forces in Bangladesh to gain the upper hand.

With China's limited and transactional capabilities, "the ball is firmly in Yunus and Waker-us-Zaman's court as BNP and Khaleda Zia are no answer to Bangladesh's challenges."