The Ousting Of Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy: What Led To His Defeat And Who's Next In Line

In an unprecedented turn of events in US history, the House of Representatives has officially removed its Speaker Kevin McCarthy from power. A rare coalition of hard-right Republicans and every Democrat joined forces to strip Speaker Kevin McCarthy of his gavel. This decision took place exactly nine months after McCarthy's initial failed bid for the speakership.

Who is currently in control?

Patrick McHenry, a Republican hailing from North Carolina, has assumed the role of the speaker pro-tem. However, his authority is circumscribed by rules, limiting his ability to engage in standard legislative activities. His primary responsibility is to oversee the election of a new speaker. In the event of a deadlock over the selection of a new speaker, the House may grant McHenry time-restricted powers to preside over debates and votes on regular bills, but this would require a majority vote.

When will a new speaker be elected?

Kevin McCarthy's decision not to seek re-election expedites the process of appointing a new speaker. If he had engaged in a protracted struggle with his eight Republican opponents who brought about his downfall, it would have prolonged the process. McHenry has announced his intention to conduct the speaker elections on Wednesday, October 11. The House Republican majority will convene in a closed-door session on Tuesday, where potential candidates can put forth their nominations for the role. The conference will then vote to designate their nominee for the position of speaker. Should a strong candidate emerge, McHenry intends to proceed with floor voting to install a new speaker.

How does the speaker election function?

The election will be carried out through a roll call vote on the floor of the House. With two vacancies in the 435-member chamber, a candidate must secure 217 votes to win if all members participate and cast their votes without abstaining by voting "present." In January, McCarthy became speaker only after a record 15 rounds of voting. Uniting the Republican conference behind a consensus candidate will prove challenging, given the differing priorities of moderate representatives from swing districts and ultraconservative members who ousted McCarthy.

Who are the potential contenders?

Potential candidates to succeed McCarthy include senior leadership figures such as Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana, Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota, or Conference Chair Elise Stefanik of New York. The conservative Freedom Caucus may put forth its own candidate, although one potential contender, Chip Roy of Texas, has stated his lack of interest. Moderates may also put forward their own candidate, like Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania. Republican Study Committee Chairman Kevin Hern and Freedom Caucus member Jim Jordan are also possible candidates. Some lawmakers are advocating for former President Donald Trump, though that remains a long shot. It's worth noting that the speaker does not have to be a sitting member of Congress.

The Democrats have a smoother path forward, with expectations that they will nominate Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the minority leader.

What can the House accomplish in the interim?

The House has adjourned until October 10, with members returning to their districts. Until a new speaker is selected, it is likely unable to conduct votes on legislation, including pending fiscal 2024 spending bills. The rules have not been tested, but the House rules-keeper is not anticipated to grant McHenry full speaker powers, given the limited role of the speaker pro-tem as defined. Nevertheless, House committees can continue their work. This means that the impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden can proceed, and two spending bills currently before the Appropriations Committee can be reviewed and approved.