Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Why Trump May Struggle to Restore Global Shipping Route

The question of how and why United States President Donald Trump may struggle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has moved to the centre of global attention after Iran effectively blocked the narrow waterway following recent conflict with the United States and Israel.

The strait carries roughly one-fifth of the world's energy supplies, and Washington is now seeking help from allies to restore safe passage. Yet military experts and analysts warn that reopening the route could prove far more complex than simply assembling a naval coalition.

Why Iran Decided to Block the Strait Now

Iran has long threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz during periods of tension with the West. Officials within the country's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have repeatedly stated over the past decade that the strategic corridor could be closed quickly if Iran faced serious military pressure.

The latest escalation followed U.S.-Israeli attacks on February 28, which triggered a major response from Tehran. Iranian forces have since used drones, missiles and naval mines to make the waterway unsafe for the massive oil and gas tankers that normally pass through it each day.

Analysts previously believed Iran would only attempt such a move as a last resort, because closing the strait risks provoking retaliation and long-term strategic consequences. However, the conflict intensified after the killing of Iran's supreme leader in the February strikes, a development Iranian officials describe as an existential threat to the country.

What Is at Stake for the Global Economy

The Strait of Hormuz is the only sea outlet for energy exports from several major Gulf producers, including Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. The narrow passage links the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and ultimately global markets.

Any disruption quickly affects international prices. Oil prices have already climbed to their highest level since 2022 following the latest escalation.

Economists warn that a prolonged closure could trigger another global cost-of-living crisis, similar to the surge in energy prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The waterway is also vital for the fertiliser trade, with around one-third of global fertiliser shipments, including sulphur and ammonia, moving through the corridor.

A longer conflict could therefore affect not only fuel costs but also food security and global inflation, raising fears of a wider economic shock.

Why Securing the Strait Is So Difficult

Even with advanced naval forces, protecting the Strait of Hormuz is extremely challenging because of its geography. Shipping lanes in parts of the corridor are only two nautical miles wide, forcing tankers to follow predictable routes.

Those routes run close to Iranian territory, including islands and mountainous coastline that provide natural cover for missile launch sites and small naval units.

Although Iran's conventional navy has weakened over time, the Revolutionary Guards maintain a wide range of asymmetric capabilities. Military analysts say these include fast attack boats, mini-submarines, naval mines, drones and even small explosive craft designed for suicide attacks.

Experts believe a temporary escort mission for a handful of tankers could be organised with several destroyers providing air defence. However, maintaining such protection for months would require far greater resources and sustained cooperation from allied navies.

What Trump Wants from Allies

The United States is now attempting to build an international coalition to safeguard shipping. President Trump has said he expects multiple countries to deploy warships to assist with escort missions through the strait.

His administration has also taken financial measures aimed at reassuring commercial shipping companies. The U.S. government recently directed the International Development Finance Corporation to provide insurance and guarantees for vessels operating in the region.

European leaders have discussed possible responses as well. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has spoken with Trump about options for restoring maritime security, while Emmanuel Macron has indicated that several European and Asian countries are considering a joint mission once the conflict subsides.

However, some nations remain cautious. Germany has questioned the effectiveness of expanding existing naval operations in the region, and both Japan and Australia have said they are not currently planning to send warships to escort shipping through the strait.

Lessons from Other Shipping Choke Points

Recent history shows how difficult it can be to secure vital sea routes during conflict. In the Red Sea, Yemen's Houthi movement has managed to disrupt shipping for more than two years despite naval patrols organised by the United States and the European Union.

Many commercial vessels continue to avoid the Suez route altogether, instead travelling around the southern tip of Africa, a journey that significantly increases costs and travel time.

Although international missions have successfully reduced piracy off Somalia in the past, analysts say confronting a well-equipped force such as Iran's Revolutionary Guards is a far more complex task.

Are There Alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz?

Some Gulf states have explored ways to reduce dependence on the strait. Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have invested in pipeline networks designed to bypass the waterway.

Yet these alternatives remain limited. Some projects are not fully operational, and past attacks have shown that pipelines themselves can also be vulnerable.

For now, the Strait of Hormuz remains the most critical artery of global energy trade, meaning that reopening it will require not only military protection but also a broader political solution to the escalating conflict in the region.