Russia's Putin Taking No Prisoners This Election Season| A Special Report

The upcoming presidential elections in Russia, scheduled for March, are widely anticipated to result in the victory of the incumbent president, Vladimir Putin. Since 2000, Putin has held power, whether as president or prime minister. If re-elected and completing his full six-year term, he will surpass any Russian or Soviet leader in tenure, exceeding even Tsar Peter the Great, who passed away in 1721, as reported by CNN.

The absence of viable opposition candidates is notable in this election. A few nominal figures, primarily loyal to Putin, have announced their candidacy. Among these contenders, only the leader of the Communist Party, Nikolai Kharitonov, is expected to receive significant votes. In the previous presidential election in 2018, the Communist candidate secured the second position to Putin, with 12% of the vote compared to Putin's 77%, reported CNN.

The official announcement by Putin

The intent to secure another six-year term in office was declared by Russian President Vladimir Putin, confirming his candidacy for an election scheduled on March 17 next year, as reported by state-owned news outlet TASS after Putin's speech at an event in the Kremlin on Friday, December 8, 2023.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov revealed in a summer interview that his boss "will be reelected next year with more than 90 per cent of the vote," attributing the apparent certainty of Putin's victory to Russia's presidential election being described as "costly bureaucracy" rather than a genuinely democratic process.

Putin, who first assumed the Russian presidency in 2000 and has predominantly held the position except for a stint as prime minister from 2008 to 2012, has maintained his grip on the top job. Despite being behind bars, jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny has initiated an "anyone but Putin" campaign, although he asserts that the results will be "rigged" regardless.

What is the 'Anyone but Putin' campaign?

Russians have been urged by imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny to vote for anyone except incumbent President Vladimir Putin in March's election, as reported by Politico.

The election, warned Navalny's campaign on Thursday, will be utilized by Putin as an "approval of the war" he is conducting against Ukraine. "On 17 March, the day of the election, everyone is urged to come to the polls and vote against Vladimir Putin," they added.

Navalny's team stated that the election results "will be rigged," but emphasized that everyone must comprehend that "Russia doesn't need Putin anymore." The Russian Senate, on Thursday, voted to hold a presidential election on March 17.

Formal announcement of his new presidential bid is still pending from longtime leader Putin, but it is almost certain that he will run (and win) again. With almost all of his domestic political opposition silenced, Putin is expected to remain in power until at least 2030, reported Politico.

Navalny has been among those targeted, spending nearly three years in prison - with decades more added to his sentence - after being arrested upon his return to Russia from Germany, where he underwent treatment in a Berlin hospital following poisoning with a nerve agent.

Were there any rivals for Putin, except Alexey?

No serious rivals exist for Putin; his most prominent opponent, Alexey Navalny, is incarcerated in a prison 40 miles north of the Arctic Circle; and the sitting president is portrayed as Russia's indispensable man by pliant media, reported CNN. Notably, Navalny has been announced dead by the Russian state media. However, this spring's vote is regarded as an important public ritual for the Kremlin leader, who stands to secure power until the end of the decade. Here are the other opposition activists jailed in Russia:

Ilya Yashin

• In December 2022, sentenced to eight-and-a-half years in prison for statements made on his YouTube channel regarding war crimes allegedly committed by Russian forces in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha, as reported by Hindustan Times.
• "Spreading false information" about the Russian armed forces was criminalized by Russia shortly after the deployment of troops into Ukraine in February 2022.
• At his sentencing, Putin was named "the person responsible for this slaughter" by Yashin, who expressed a preference for spending "10 years behind bars as an honest man" rather than silently bearing shame for the government's actions.

Vladimir Kara-Murza

• In April 2023, sentenced to 25 years in prison on treason and other charges, which he denies, drawing comparisons to a Stalinist show trial.
• A former aide to Boris Nemtsov, an opposition figure assassinated in 2015, Kara-Murza suffers from a nerve disorder after surviving two poisoning attempts,, as reported by Hindustan Times.

Igor Girkin

• Sentenced last month to four years for inciting extremism after insulting Putin.
• Remanded in custody since July for setting up the "Club of Angry Patriots" and entertaining ideas about running against Putin in the presidential election.
• Previously involved in the annexation of Crimea and commanded pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine.
• Handed a life sentence in absentia by a Dutch court in 2022 for involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, as reported by Hindustan Times.

Liliya Chanysheva, Vadim Ostanin, Ksenia Fadeyeva

• Former employees of Navalny's campaign or his anti-corruption organization (FBK).
• Chanysheva was sentenced to seven-and-a-half years, Ostanin to nine years, and Fadeyeva to nine and a half years for various charges related to extremism, as reported by Hindustan Times.
• Prosecutions labelled politically motivated by Navalny's aides.

Igor Sergunin, Alexei Liptser, Vadim Kobzev

• Three of Navalny's lawyers were detained in October on suspicion of belonging to an "extremist group."
• Accused of enabling Navalny to direct extremist activity from behind bars.
• Two additional lawyers, Olga Mikhailova and Alexander Fedulov, added to Russia's wanted list.

Alexey's Death: A Watershed Moment

In this election season, Putin is showing no mercy, leaving no prisoners on his path to power. The death of Navalny, formerly considered Putin's most significant political challenger, marks a watershed moment for Russia's shattered pro-democracy movement, which has been predominantly jailed or forced into exile since the Ukraine invasion of 2022.

While Navalny and his numerous supporters anticipated the possibility of his demise behind bars, few envisioned it happening so soon. Reports of his death elicited a shockwave of anger and disbelief among his supporters, including his family.

During a speech at the Munich Security Conference, it was stated by his wife, Yulia, that she was unsure whether to believe the terrible news. She further expressed that if it is true, then she would like Putin, his staff, his friends, and his government to know that they will be punished for what has been done to their country, her family, and her husband. It was emphasized that they would be brought to justice, and that day would come very soon.

Is Putin's future rest assured now?

Putin's future is shaped by the lessons learned from past political upheavals, such as the aftermath of the 2020 Belarusian presidential elections and the 2011 protests in Russia following disputed elections. The potential for unrest poses a threat to state stability, compelling Putin to ensure the forthcoming presidential election maintains an appearance of fairness.

Despite Putin's current popularity, largely cultivated by the media, it may not be sustainable, especially as the war in Ukraine persists, leading to increasing casualties and economic strain. The inevitable need for further mobilization and the economic toll of the conflict will likely fuel discontent among ordinary Russians, potentially eroding support for Putin in the long run. While he may secure victory in the upcoming elections, the challenges ahead may cast uncertainty on his ability to maintain power indefinitely, as reported by Reuters.