Aviation Experts Link Russian Air Defence Fire to Azerbaijan Airlines Plane Crash

Aviation experts have suggested that Russian air defence fire might have caused the Azerbaijani plane crash on Wednesday, which resulted in 38 fatalities and injuries to all 29 survivors. The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 was travelling from Baku to Grozny when it diverted and crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan.

Crash Investigation and Speculations

The aircraft went down approximately 3 km from Aktau. Online footage showed the plane descending steeply before crashing and exploding. Additional videos depicted part of the fuselage detached from the wings, with the rest of the plane upside down on grass. Azerbaijan observed a national moment of silence for the victims on Thursday.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, during a news conference, stated that it was premature to speculate about the crash's cause. He mentioned that adverse weather conditions forced a change in the plane's course. "The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing," he said.

Allegations of Air Defence Involvement

Russia's civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, indicated that a bird strike might have led to an emergency, prompting the diversion to Aktau. However, Azerbaijani lawmaker Rasim Musabekov accused Moscow of firing at the plane over Grozny and demanded an apology and compensation for victims. "Those who did this must face criminal charges," Musabekov was quoted by Turan as saying.

Experts noted holes in the plane's tail section, suggesting possible fire from Russian air defence systems countering a Ukrainian drone attack. Ukrainian drones had previously targeted Grozny and other North Caucasus regions. An official in Chechnya reported another drone attack on Wednesday, though federal authorities did not confirm it.

Expert Analysis and Reactions

Mark Zee from OPSGroup analysed images of the wreckage and suggested a high probability of a surface-to-air missile (SAM) attack. "Much more to investigate, but at high level we'd put the probability of it being a SAM attack on the aircraft at being well into the 90-99% bracket," he said.

Osprey Flight Solutions warned clients that Russian military air-defence systems likely shot down the flight. CEO Andrew Nicholson highlighted over 200 alerts issued about drone attacks and air defence systems in Russia during the war. "This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do," Nicholson posted online.

Independent Russian military expert Yan Matveyev noted damage on the tail consistent with shrapnel from small surface-to-air missiles like Pantsyr-S1. "It looks like the tail section of the plane was damaged by some missile fragments," he said.

Unanswered Questions

Matveyev questioned why pilots flew east across the Caspian Sea instead of landing at a closer Russian airport after being hit. He speculated that some systems might have functioned temporarily or there were restrictions on landing elsewhere in Russia.

Caliber, an Azerbaijani news site, claimed a Russian Pantsyr-S system fired at the airliner near Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities didn't close airports despite drone raids or allow emergency landings nearby.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov advised against forming hypotheses before investigators conclude their work. Kazakh parliamentary speaker Maulen Ashimbayev also cautioned against premature conclusions based on fragment images.

Kazakh officials reported 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russians, six Kazakhs, and three Kyrgyzstan nationals were aboard. Russia's Emergencies Ministry transported nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment on Thursday.