Opposition Fighters Approach Damascus: Understanding the Current Crisis in Syria's Civil War

Opposition fighters are advancing towards Syria's capital, creating a rapidly evolving crisis that has caught many off guard. Syrian forces have retreated from key cities in the west and south with minimal resistance. In Damascus, anxious residents report security forces patrolling the streets. The state news agency has denied rumours of President Bashar Assad fleeing the country. This situation marks a significant shift for Assad's government in the last 10 days.

The opposition fighters, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army, have reached Damascus's outskirts for the first time since 2018. These groups launched a surprise attack on November 27, capturing Aleppo and Hama. HTS, once linked to al-Qaida, is labelled a terrorist organisation by the US and UN. However, HTS claims to have severed ties with al-Qaida and now focuses on civilian governance alongside military actions.

Syrian Government's Diminishing Control

The Syrian government now controls only four of the country's 14 provincial capitals. Opposition groups have mobilised in other regions too. Sweida and Daraa in the south have been locally seized. Sweida, home to Syria's Druze minority, has seen regular anti-government protests. Daraa, a Sunni Muslim area, was pivotal in the 2011 uprising against Assad but was recaptured in 2018 under a Russian-mediated ceasefire.

HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani stated their offensive aims to topple Assad's regime. The HTS and Syrian National Army have been both allies and rivals. Their goals might diverge as Turkish-backed militias seek a buffer zone near Turkiye's border to counter Kurdish militants. Turkiye supports fighters against Assad but recently advocated reconciliation, denying involvement in this offensive.

Potential Internal Conflicts

Whether HTS and the Syrian National Army will cooperate if they succeed remains uncertain. Turkiye has been a key supporter of those opposing Assad but now urges reconciliation. Turkish officials strongly deny any role in the current offensive. The possibility of these groups turning against each other post-Assad is a significant concern.

Meanwhile, armed opposition groups have also mobilised elsewhere in Syria. Much of Syria's east is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led group backed by the US that has clashed with various armed factions in the past.

Future Prospects for Syria

The future hinges on Assad's next steps and his forces' resolve against rebels. Insurgent commander Hassan Abdul-Ghani announced on Telegram that opposition forces are executing the "final stage" of their offensive by encircling Damascus. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported troop withdrawals from southern provinces and Homs.

If Homs falls, it would sever Damascus from coastal regions where Assad has strong support. "Homs to the coastal cities will be a very huge red line politically and socially," said Damascus resident Anas Joudeh.

Assad appears isolated as allies Russia and Iran focus on other conflicts, while Hezbollah is weakened by its conflict with Israel under a fragile ceasefire. The UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, calls for urgent talks in Geneva for an "orderly political transition," noting rapid changes in the situation.

President-elect Donald Trump commented extensively on Syria's developments, stating that Assad doesn't deserve US support to remain in power: "THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT," Trump posted on social media.