NATO to Sustain Arms Support for Ukraine; Membership Talks Paused

NATO leaders are set to pledge continued military support for Ukraine for at least another year. This commitment aims to reassure Ukraine and signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that NATO's support remains steadfast. The three-day summit in Washington, starting Tuesday, marks NATO's 75th anniversary amidst ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the alliance's 32 member countries have been spending around 40 billion euros annually on military equipment for Ukraine since February 2022. He emphasised that this amount should be a "minimum baseline" moving forward. "I expect allies will decide at the summit to sustain this level within the next year," Stoltenberg said.

Long-term Commitment to Ukraine

Stoltenberg has stressed the importance of a long-term commitment to Ukraine. He noted that political delays, particularly in the US Congress, have hindered timely funding. This has left Ukraine's armed forces struggling. Stoltenberg had hoped for a multi-year program with at least 40 billion euros annually, which matches current spending levels.

NATO faces challenges in finding new ways to support Ukraine. Currently, NATO allies provide 99% of Ukraine's military aid. The alliance plans to manage equipment deliveries but maintains two red lines: no NATO membership for Ukraine until the war ends and no NATO troops on Ukrainian soil.

Streamlining Military Support

A new initiative likely to be endorsed at the summit involves streamlining military equipment deliveries and training for Ukrainian forces. Initially, Western backers sent various weapons and materiel, creating logistical challenges. A senior US State Department official mentioned a mission based in Wiesbaden, Germany, under a US general's leadership, to coordinate these efforts better.

The US will announce new steps to bolster Ukraine's air defenses and military capabilities. A senior Biden administration official confirmed this but did not detail the specific air defense capabilities being sent. Last month, the administration indicated plans to expedite air defense interceptor missile deliveries by redirecting shipments from other allied nations.

NATO-Ukraine Council Meeting

The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Thursday during the summit. Later that day, US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will host an event with leaders from nearly two dozen nations who have signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine.

A significant challenge for NATO leaders is framing Ukraine's membership prospects without allowing it to join while fighting continues. Many allies fear being drawn into a broader conflict with Russia if Ukraine becomes a member now. Hungary opposes Ukraine's membership altogether.

At their last summit, NATO leaders agreed to fast-track Ukraine's membership process but did not set a timeline. Zelenskyy criticised this as "unprecedented and absurd" due to the lack of a clear timeframe or conditions for membership. Recent briefings aim to avoid similar criticism this time.

NATO officials are considering using terms like "irreversible" to describe Ukraine's path to membership as they refine their language ahead of the summit. It's uncertain how these changes will be received in Kyiv.

Membership would offer Ukraine protection against Russia, which annexed Crimea a decade ago and recently seized land in eastern and southern Ukraine. However, before joining NATO, Kyiv must reform its security institutions, improve governance, and curb corruption.

The upcoming summit aims to demonstrate unity and resolve among NATO members despite political uncertainties in several key countries. The possible return of Donald Trump as US president is a concern due to his previous undermining of trust among allies. Political instability in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and the UK also adds complexity.

In conclusion, NATO leaders are poised to reaffirm their commitment to supporting Ukraine militarily while navigating political challenges and refining their approach to Ukraine's potential membership in the alliance.