Leadership Dilemma : Assertive Trump vis-a-vis Calm, Progressive Harris

The race for the White House is now neck-and-neck, with both candidates-former president Donald Trump and current Vice-President Kamala Harris-having equal support not only across the country, but also in key 'swing' states that could determine the outcome of the election.

The polls are so closely fought that they fall within the margin of error, meaning that either Trump or Harris could, potentially, be two or three percentage points ahead, which would be enough for one of them to win by a comfortable margin. There are good reasons to believe that either candidate could have an advantage in gathering support from voters in key areas and encouraging them to actually show up to vote.

Let us consider the remarkable chance that a president who has lost an election may get elected again-unprecedented in 130 years.

Reasons Trump May Win

1. Out of Office or not in power

The economy is the top concern for voters. Even though unemployment is low and the stock market is doing well, many Americans are dealing with rising prices and feel they are struggling financially every day.

Inflation has reached its highest levels since the 1970s after the pandemic, allowing Trump to ask voters: "Are you better off now than four years ago?"

In 2024, voters in many countries have voted out the party in power, partly because of the high cost of living that followed the Covid pandemic. Similarly, US voters are looking for change, as well.

Only about 25% of Americans feel happy with the way the country is headed, while two-thirds (66.67 %) believe the economy is not doing well.

Harris has aimed at being seen as a 'candidate for change' but, as vice-president, she has had a hard time wresting herself away from the unpopular Joe Biden.

2. Unaffected by Negative News

Even after the chaos of the January 6, 2021, riot at the US Capitol, multiple legal challenges and a historic criminal conviction, Trump's support has stayed steady at 40%-or higher-throughout the year.

Although Democrats and some conservatives who oppose Trump believe he should not be in the race at all, most Republicans support him when he claims he is being targeted unfairly for political reasons.

Since both sides are firmly set on their opinions, his goal is to convince the small group of undecided voters who have not yet made up their minds about him. He does not need to change everyone's opinion-only those few still on the fence!

3. Illegal Immigration Strikes a Chord

Besides the state of the economy, elections are often influenced by issues that resonate strongly with people's emotions. Democrats are hoping 'abortion' will be the key issue, while Trump is counting on 'immigration'.

After a record numbers of encounters at the border under Biden and the effects reaching states far away, polls show voters trust Trump more on immigration issues. He is performing better with Latino voters than he did in the past elections.

4. 'Boosting Rural & Losing Moderates'

Trump's ability to connect with voters who feel ignored or left out has changed American politics. Many groups that supported the Democrats-such as union workers-have shifted towards supporting the Republicans. Trump's focus on protecting American industries, especially through tariffs, has also become a more accepted approach in US policy.

If Trump gets more people to vote in the rural and suburban areas of important states, it could balance out the loss of support from moderate, college-educated Republicans.

5. Steady Leader in a Turbulent World

Trump's critics argue that he weakens America's alliances by getting too close to authoritarian leaders.

Trump believes his unpredictability is his strength and often reminds people that no major wars broke out during his presidency.

Many Americans are upset for various reasons about the US sending billions of dollars to Ukraine and Israel and they feel the country is weaker under Biden's leadership.

Most voters, especially men whom Trump has reached out to through such podcasts as Joe Rogan's, view him as stronger than Harris.

The Joe Rogan Experience is a popular podcast hosted by comedian Joe Rogan, where he talks with a wide range of guests about such topics as politics, health and culture. Known for its long, open conversations, the podcast has a huge audience and influences public opinion on many issues.

Reasons Harris May Win

1. Harris vs Trump: Stability, Chaos?

Even with Trump's strengths, he is still a highly divisive figure. In 2020, Trump received more votes than any previous Republican candidate, but he lost because seven million more people voted for Biden. This time, Harris is using fear about Trump's comeback. She has labelled him a "fascist" who supports a government with strict control and no tolerance for the Opposition and a danger to democracy, while promising to move away from "drama and conflict".

A Reuters/Ipsos poll from July showed that 80% of Americans felt the country was heading in the wrong direction. Harris hopes that voters, especially moderate Republicans-who hold more centrist or balanced views on certain issues-and Independents, will view her as the candidate who can bring stability.

2. Harris Rises,Trump Faces Age

When Biden backed out of the race, Democrats were almost sure to lose. Wanting to defeat Trump, the party quickly came together to support Harris. She, soon enough, delivered a hopeful, future-focussed message that energized her supporters.

Republicans have tried to connect Harris to Biden's unpopular policies, but she has made some of their arguments against Biden less relevant. One of the biggest issues was Biden's age, as polls showed many voters were worried about whether he was fit for the job. But now, the situation has changed, and it is Trump who is perceived to be the oldest person trying to win the presidency.

3. Abortion Debate Boosts Voter Base

This is the first presidential election since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe vs Wade, the ruling that had protected a woman's constitutional right to an abortion for nearly 50 years. Roe vs Wade was a Supreme Court case in 1973 between 'Jane Roe' (a pseudonym for Norma McCorvey, a woman seeking an abortion) and Henry Wade, the district attorney of Dallas County, Texas, who enforced the state's abortion laws. The case challenged Texas's ban on abortion, leading to the Court's landmark decision that legalized abortion nationwide, based on a woman's constitutional right to privacy.

Voters who care about protecting abortion rights strongly support Harris. Past elections, such as the 2022 midterms, have shown that this issue can bring more people to the polls and influence the outcome.

In this election, 10 states, including the key swing state of Arizona, will let voters decide how abortion should be regulated through ballot initiatives. This could increase voter turnout in Harris's favour.

Also, Harris's attempt at trying to become the first female POTUS could boost her already strong support among women voters.

4. More Harris Supporter Turn Out Likely

Harris is doing better in polls with such groups as college-educated and older voters who are more likely to show up and vote. Democrats usually do better with groups that have higher voter turnout, while Trump has gained support from such groups as young men and people without college degrees, who tend to vote less often.

According to a New York Times/Siena poll, Trump has a strong lead among people who were registered to vote but did not vote in the 2020 election. The big question now is whether they will vote this time.

5. Harris Raised and Spent More Funds

The BBC reports that everyone knows American elections are costly and the 2024 election is expected to be the most expensive yet.

Harris leads in spending power. Since becoming the candidate in July, she has raised more money than Trump has since January 2023, according to a recent Financial Times report. The analysis also shows her campaign has spent nearly twice as much on advertising.

This could make a difference in a very close race that will be decided by voters in swing states, where they are currently being flooded with political ads.