Hungarian Parliament Greenlights Sweden's NATO Membership - Significance And Implications Explained

Sweden's Nato accession was approved by Hungary's Parliament on Monday, marking the clearing of the last hurdle before the historic step by the Nordic country, whose neutrality endured through two World Wars and the simmering conflict of the Cold War.

The vote in Hungary concluded months of delays to finalize Sweden's security policy shift and was preceded by a visit from Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson on Friday (February 23), during which an arms deal was signed between the two countries.

Sweden Gets Much Awaited NATO entry

At a press conference, Kristersson stated, "200 years of neutrality and military non-alignment are being left behind by Sweden. We are joining Nato in order to defend what we are and everything we believe in even better. We are defending our freedom, our democracy, and our values, together with others."

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's government faced pressure from Nato allies to fall in line and seal Sweden's accession to the alliance. White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre expressed, "We would like to welcome Sweden alongside Finland into the Nato alliance very, very soon," encouraging Hungary's government to promptly complete the process to allow Sweden's entry into Nato.

"Nato gains a member that is serious and capable, and it removes a factor of uncertainty in Northern Europe," said Robert Dalsjo, senior analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency, a government think tank. Sweden's accession to Nato, which has not been at war since 1814, and Finland's entry mark the most significant expansion of the alliance since it accepted members from Eastern Europe after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine fueled support in Sweden for joining Nato, especially as neighboring Finland quickly moved to join. The Hungarian ratification, backed by a large majority of lawmakers, will now be signed by the country's speaker of parliament and president within a few days. After that, the remaining formalities, such as depositing accession documentation in Washington, are likely to be concluded swiftly.

Why did Sweden decide to join NATO?

At the end of the Napoleonic wars of the early 19th century, an official policy of neutrality was adopted by Sweden. Following the end of the Cold War, the neutrality policy was amended to one of military non-alignment. While forces have been sent to international peacekeeping missions by Sweden, war has not been engaged in for more than 200 years.

The last conflict fought was the Swedish-Norwegian War of 1814. Despite its neutrality, an active foreign policy has been pursued by Sweden, championing human rights and being a top aid donor per capita, sometimes labelled a "humanitarian superpower". While remaining outside NATO, ever-closer ties to the alliance have been formed by Sweden, joining the Partnership for Peace programme in 1994 and then the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council in 1997.

However, full membership has long been opposed by a majority of Swedes, and it was considered somewhat of a taboo among the Social Democrats -- Sweden's largest political party. In the fall of 2021, former Social Democrat defence minister Peter Hultqvist even declared that he could "guarantee" that he would never participate in a process to join NATO.

Only months later, a dramatic shift in both public opinion and among political parties was brought about by Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. A broad majority of the Swedish parliament voted to apply for membership, which was done by the country -- along with Finland -- in May 2022.

What does Sweden bring to NATO?

For a long time, it was dictated by Swedish policy that a strong military was needed by the country to protect its neutrality. However, after the end of the Cold War, its defence spending was drastically slashed, and its military focus was turned toward peacekeeping operations around the world.

In 1990, defence spending accounted for 2.6 percent of gross domestic product, which shrank to 1.2 percent by 2020, according to the government. An increase in spending began following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. In March 2022, it was announced by Sweden that spending would increase again, with a target of two percent of GDP "as soon as possible".

In late 2023, it was stated by Sweden's government that military spending would exceed the two percent goal in 2024. Some 50,000 soldiers can be fielded by the Swedish military, about half of whom are reservists. Its air force includes more than 90 domestically developed fighter jets JAS 19 Gripen, and a Baltic Sea navy that comprises several corvettes and submarines.

It was also stated by Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in January that his country was ready to contribute troops to NATO's forces in Latvia. With Sweden and Finland joining NATO, the Baltic Sea becomes surrounded by alliance members, with some analysts dubbing it a NATO lake. "It's the final piece of the puzzle on NATO's map in Northern Europe that is now falling into place," Robert Dalsjo, an analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), told AFP.

What are the implications for Sweden's defence?

As a member of NATO, several key aspects of the country's military calculations are changed. "For a long time, the presumption Sweden has worked from is: 'We'll solve the task alone'," stated Jan Henningson, a researcher at the FOI, told AFP. "That changes now," he added, noting that defence will now need to be conducted within the alliance.

"Now we'll have to learn to be a team player. And we'll have to adjust to the fact that we are not preparing to defend just Swedish territory, but allied territory," observed Dalsjo. Joining the alliance also upends Sweden's traditional thinking of power relations in a potential conflict.

"Traditionally, it has been thought that we are a small state and whoever attacks us is much bigger," remarked Henningson. However, when it comes to the economy and demographics, "NATO is much larger than Russia," according to Henningson. "We are no longer David in all aspects, so to speak," remarked Henningson-a change that is not lost on Sweden's military.

"It'll be a quite impressive force with hopefully the combined might of 32 countries from Turkey in the south all the way up to Svalbard," stated Swedish army chief Jonny Lindfors to newspaper Dagens Nyheter in December. He added that he thinks the extra strength would make the risk of a conflict breaking out less likely.