“Global GDP Growth Will Be Impacted”: Qatar Energy Minister Warns Over Prolonged Middle East War

The article examines how the Middle East energy conflict may affect global growth, energy prices, and shipping, with potential force majeure declarations by Gulf exporters and heightened inflation risks for major economies.

Qatar’s energy minister has warned that the Middle East conflict could “bring down” world economies, with Gulf oil and gas producers forced to halt output within weeks. Saad al-Kaabi said extended fighting would push energy prices sharply higher, disrupt shipping routes and trigger factory shutdowns, raising the risk of a global slowdown as supply chains struggle to cope.

The warning follows Qatar’s suspension of liquefied natural gas production on 2 March, after Iranian strikes hit Gulf energy infrastructure and escalated the regional war. The shutdown drove a sharp spike in global gas prices, underlining how dependent major economies remain on stable flows from the Gulf, and fuelling concern among governments over energy security and inflation.

Middle East energy conflict and global economic impact

Speaking to the Financial Times, Kaabi said the current war is already threatening growth worldwide. “If this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted. Everybody's energy price is going to go higher,” he said. Kaabi also warned of product shortages and a “chain reaction” as factories struggle to meet orders.

Kaabi forecast that crude prices could hit $150 a barrel within two to three weeks if oil tankers and other cargo vessels are blocked from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow corridor used by much of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Kaabi also expects gas prices to reach $40 per million British thermal units, or €117 per MWh.

Middle East energy conflict, shipping risks and price data

The conflict flared after attacks by the US and Israel on Iran, followed by Iranian strikes on US bases, including facilities in Qatar. Those clashes, combined with drone and missile attacks on Gulf energy sites, have raised fears over the safety of shipping in Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil and gas exports currently move.

Recent market moves already reflect those worries. Brent crude touched $87 a barrel on Friday, the highest level since April 2024, with prices up about 4 per cent in one session. Traders are tracking any further disruption in Hormuz, Ras Laffan and other key hubs, as even short stoppages can unsettle fuel, freight and consumer markets.

Discussing Gulf exporters, Kaabi said producers may have to declare force majeure, a legal clause that lets companies suspend contractual duties when events beyond their control prevent performance. Kaabi said many exporters that have not yet taken this step are likely to “do so in the next few days.” “If they don't, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that's their choice,” he added.

Kaabi, who also serves as chief executive of QatarEnergy, said Qatar has already declared force majeure after the attack on its Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas complex, the country’s largest LNG facility. Production will not resume until there is a full halt to hostilities, Kaabi said, adding that it could take “weeks to months” for Qatar to restore a normal delivery schedule once conditions stabilise.

Although Europe receives only a limited share of Qatar’s gas exports, Kaabi warned that European states could still face serious competition for supplies. Asian buyers are expected to bid aggressively for available cargoes, especially if other Gulf producers face difficulties honouring long-term contracts. That shift could tighten European markets even without a direct loss of Qatar volumes.

Kaabi’s remarks come as officials in Washington and Tel Aviv signal that fighting could last for weeks, with the stated aim of weakening Iran’s Islamic regime. For now, energy markets remain volatile, and governments across regions including India are watching developments closely as they assess risks to trade routes, import costs and domestic inflation from the continuing Middle East conflict.