From Deterrence To War: Analysts Say Israel Benefits More Than America In Iran Strikes

US President Donald Trump once stood before regional leaders during a Middle East visit in May and outlined a foreign policy vision that rejected attempts to reshape other nations. He argued Washington should abandon interventionist ambitions and learn from past failures in the region.

"In the end, the so-called nation-builders wrecked far more nations than they built, and the interventionists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves," the US president said, criticising previous administrations.

Less than a year later, however, Trump authorised a sweeping military assault on Iran, presenting it as a campaign meant to bring "freedom" to the country, a phrase closely associated with earlier US regime-change wars.

From anti-intervention rhetoric to full-scale conflict

Analysts say the decision clashes with Trump's political messaging and campaign promises. Iran specialists told Al Jazeera the operation aligns more closely with Israel's strategic goals than with Washington's own priorities.

"This is, once again, a war of choice launched by the US with [a] push from Israel," said Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC.

"This is another Israeli war that the US is launching. Israel has pushed the US to attack Iran for two decades, and they finally got it."

Mortazavi also pointed to Trump's previous branding of himself as a peacemaker. "It is ironic, because this is a president who called himself the 'president of peace'," she told Al Jazeera.

The opening day of fighting saw Iran retaliate with missile strikes against locations hosting American troops and military assets across the Middle East, rapidly escalating regional tensions. Trump acknowledged the risks to US forces. "That often happens in war," he said on Saturday. "But we're doing this not for now. We're doing this for the future. And it is a noble mission."

Longstanding warnings about Iran

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned for more than two decades that Iran is close to acquiring nuclear weapons, despite Tehran's repeated denials. US officials have also said there is no evidence Iran is weaponising its uranium enrichment programme.

After American strikes hit major enrichment sites during a 12-day conflict last year, which Trump said "obliterated" Iran's nuclear programme, Netanyahu shifted attention to ballistic missiles.

"Iran can blackmail any American city," Netanyahu told pro-Israel podcaster Ben Shapiro in October.

"People don't believe it. Iran is developing intercontinental missiles with a range of 8,000km [5,000 miles], add another 3,000 [1,800 miles], and they can get to the East Coast of the US."

Trump echoed the concern in his State of the Union address. "They've already developed missiles that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they're working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America," he said.

Public opinion in the United States remains cautious about another overseas war. A University of Maryland poll found only 21 percent of respondents supported military conflict with Iran.

Diplomacy interrupted

The escalation also followed diplomatic engagement. American and Iranian negotiators held three rounds of talks in a single week, with Tehran indicating willingness to accept strict inspections of its nuclear programme. Omani mediators described the last meeting as positive and reported significant progress.

Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council, said the timing of the war undermined negotiations.

"Netanyahu's agenda has always been to prevent a diplomatic solution, and he feared Trump was actually serious about getting a deal, so the start of this war in the middle of negotiations is a success for him, just like it was last June," Abdi told Al Jazeera.

"Trump's embrace of regime change rhetoric is a further victory for Netanyahu, and loss for the American people, as it suggests the US may be committed to a long and unpredictable military boondoggle."

Domestic backlash in the United States

While announcing the strikes, Trump insisted the goal was to prevent Iran from "threatening America and our core national security interests". Critics questioned that assessment, noting Iran lies more than 10,000km away from US territory.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee earlier argued, "if it were not for Iran, there wouldn't be Hezbollah; we wouldn't have the problem on the border with Lebanon".

Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson replied, "What problem on the border with Lebanon? I'm an American. I'm not having any problems on the border with Lebanon right now. I live in Maine."

Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib also opposed the intervention. "Trump is acting on the violent fantasies of the American political elite and the Israeli apartheid government, ignoring the vast majority of Americans who say loud and clear: No More Wars," she said in a statement.

The war has therefore opened divisions at home as well as abroad, raising questions about whether Washington is entering another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict despite earlier promises to avoid one.