Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Remains Intact Despite Violations and Tensions

A ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has been in place for over a month, though its terms seem unlikely to be fulfilled by the agreed deadline. The truce, established on 27 November, required Hezbollah to disarm in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw within 60 days, transferring control to the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers. However, Israel has only vacated two towns and continues to target alleged Hezbollah bases.

Hezbollah, weakened by nearly 14 months of conflict, has threatened to resume hostilities if Israel does not complete its withdrawal by the deadline. Despite accusations of hundreds of ceasefire violations from both sides, analysts believe the truce will likely hold. This is positive news for thousands of displaced Israeli and Lebanese families hoping to return home.

Ceasefire Agreement Terms

The ceasefire agreement stipulates that both Hezbollah and Israel must cease "offensive" military actions but can act in self-defence. The Lebanese army is tasked with preventing attacks into Israel and dismantling Hezbollah's facilities in southern Lebanon. The United States, France, Israel, Lebanon, and the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) oversee the agreement's implementation.

Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, stated, "The key question is not whether the deal will hold, but what version of it will be implemented." The agreement's flexibility might help it endure amid changing circumstances.

Implementation Challenges

Hezbollah has largely stopped its rocket and drone attacks on Israel, while Israel has halted most assaults on Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, Israel continues airstrikes on alleged militant sites in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley. Israeli forces have withdrawn from Khiam and Shamaa but remain in about 60 other towns.

Lebanon accuses Israel of violating the ceasefire with numerous attacks and has filed a complaint with the UN Security Council. Israel also claims Hezbollah has breached the truce multiple times by moving ammunition and launching rockets towards northern Israel.

Future Prospects

The slow Israeli withdrawal is attributed to a lack of Lebanese army troops ready to take over. Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani stated that security remains a priority for Israel despite preferring a quicker transfer of power. Harel Chorev from Tel Aviv University noted that Lebanon needs more troops before Israel can fully withdraw.

Hezbollah officials warn they may resume attacks if Israeli forces remain after 60 days. Secretary General Naim Kassem indicated patience might run out before or after this period. Despite setbacks from Israeli strikes and Assad's fall, Hezbollah aims to prevent the deal from collapsing entirely.

Former Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni suggests that even if Israel withdraws ground forces, sporadic airstrikes could continue as seen in Syria. The power imbalance may lead Israel to seek greater freedom post-60 days while Hezbollah remains cautious due to its weakened state.