Canada Records Largest Population Decline in 80 Years as International Student Numbers Fall

Canada has recorded its sharpest population fall in at least eight decades, with a steep drop in temporary residents, especially international students, emerging as the main driver.

Fresh estimates from Statistics Canada show that the decline marks a significant reversal after years of rapid population growth fuelled by immigration.

Sharpest Quarterly Fall Since Records Began

Between July and September 2025, Canada's population fell by 76,068 people, a contraction of 0.2 per cent. Statistics Canada data going back to 1946 indicates that no quarterly decline has been larger. The only other recent fall was during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the population dipped by a much smaller 1,232 people in the final quarter of 2020.

The current downturn follows a period of record growth. In the third quarter of 2023, Canada added 418,634 people, a rise of 1 per cent and the strongest quarterly increase since 1957. That surge, driven largely by temporary migration under policies adopted during former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's tenure, later triggered public concern and policy pushback.

Temporary Residents Behind the Decline

Statistics Canada attributed the latest population fall primarily to a sharp reduction in non permanent residents. "Preliminary estimates show that the reduction in the number of non-permanent residents in Canada (-176,479) in the third quarter of 2025 was the primary reason for the decrease in Canada's population over this period," the agency said.

As of October 1, 2025, Canada had 2,847,737 non permanent residents, accounting for 6.8 per cent of the total population. This was down from 3,024,216, or 7.3 per cent, recorded on July 1. The agency said the fall was driven by "larger, record-high outflows" of temporary residents.

By contrast, the population had still been growing a year earlier. In the third quarter of 2024, Canada's population rose by 231,803 people, or 0.6 per cent.

Indian Student Numbers See Steep Drop

A significant part of the decline has come from a reduction in international students, particularly from India. Data from Immigration, Refugees and Immigration Canada shows that the number of study permits issued to Indian students fell by more than half in the third quarter of 2025 compared with the same period last year.

Between July and September 2025, Indian nationals received 24,030 study permits out of a total of 146,505, or 16.4 per cent. In the same quarter of 2024, they accounted for 52,425 permits, nearly 30 per cent of the 177,025 visas issued.

In September alone, Indian students were issued 8,400 permits out of 49,350, compared with 14,385 out of 46,230 in September 2024. The fall follows tighter rules introduced from late 2023 amid concerns over housing affordability and strain on public infrastructure.

Caps Tightened as Ottawa Targets Further Reductions

Looking ahead, the federal government has signalled that the contraction will continue. In November, it projected a seven per cent reduction in the total number of international students receiving permits next year. IRCC said the number of study permits to be issued in 2026 will be capped at 408,000, including 155,000 for new students and 253,000 extensions.

"This number is 7% lower than the 2025 issuance target of 437,000 and 16% lower than the 2024 issuance target of 485,000," IRCC said.

The department added that the cap introduced in 2024 "has been an effective tool in slowing the growth of Canada's temporary population," noting that study permit holders declined from over one million in January 2024 to about 725,000 by September 2025.

"While this progress is significant, further reductions are needed to meet our commitment of reducing the share of Canada's temporary population to below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027," it said.

Under the latest immigration levels plan tabled in Parliament, Canada is set to cut its intake of temporary residents, including workers and students, by nearly 43 per cent. The annual target for new international students has been lowered from 305,000 to 155,000, with a further reduction to 150,000 planned for both 2027 and 2028.