Biden Ends US Presidential Campaign: Implications for Ukraine's Future

US President Joe Biden's decision to end his re-election campaign introduces uncertainty for Ukraine, which is battling Russian advances while worrying about future American support. The possibility of former President Donald Trump winning has long troubled Kyiv, fearing he might cut off aid and force Ukraine into a peace deal favouring Russia.

Despite the Democrats' hope that Biden's endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris will energise their campaign, it remains unclear if it will make Trump's defeat more likely. Moscow officials, who are thought to prefer Trump, have remained noncommittal. Kyiv resident Yulia Loginova expressed uncertainty about Biden's departure's impact on Ukraine, saying, "I don't know, honestly. Surprises every day. But he did the right thing."

Concerns Over Future US Support

Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, noted that Biden's withdrawal "changes the narrative of the campaign," but it's too early to determine its effect on the presidential election dynamics. Regardless of the outcome, Ukraine may face challenging times ahead.

The US is Ukraine's most crucial ally, but under Biden, it has sometimes been seen as a frustrating partner. Standing in Kyiv's Independence Square among small Ukrainian flags honouring those killed in the war, a soldier named Sadik said victory "is impossible without the support of the USA, that is a fact. They have the largest number of weapons, influence and everything." He added that if the US had provided more support earlier, "the war would have ended a long time ago."

A new Trump administration could worsen things for Ukraine. Sadik feared that if Trump wins, there would be little or no weapons support, forcing Ukraine into concessions to end the war as Russian troops make gradual gains. Trump has claimed he could end the conflict within 24 hours, but Ukrainians believe any settlement would favour Russia.

Trump's Potential Impact on Ukraine

Trump's choice of Sen. JD Vance, an opponent of US military aid to Ukraine, as his vice-presidential running mate has raised more concerns. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy mentioned during a visit to Britain last week that dealing with Trump would be hard work but assured that Ukrainians aren't "afraid of hard work." Zelenskyy and Trump spoke by phone on Friday, describing their call as good on social media platform X.

Zelenskyy wrote on X: "The current situation in Ukraine and all of Europe is no less challenging, and we sincerely hope that America's continued strong leadership will prevent Russian evil from succeeding or making its aggression pay off." Despite gratitude for US support, frustration remains over its limitations.

As Russia intensifies attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, Zelenskyy's government has urged the Biden administration to allow American-supplied weapons to strike deep inside Russia. Ukraine aims to target sites far from the border used by Moscow for airborne attacks on Ukraine. Washington has not granted permission due to concerns about escalating the conflict.

Disappointment with Current US Support

"The Ukrainians are pretty disappointed with Biden," said Edward Lucas, a senior adviser at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He added that Biden's indecision has resulted in destruction and unnecessary casualties in Ukraine. "So although Trump might be worse … a continuation of the Biden line is already pretty grim."

Several senior US Democrats have quickly supported Harris as the nominee. On foreign policy, her public statements align closely with Biden's. At the Munich Security Conference in February, she pledged that "President Joe Biden and I stand with Ukraine" and promised to secure critical weapons and resources for Ukraine.

Heather Hurlburt from Chatham House noted Harris had been "very front and centre in the Ukraine policy" and would likely continue Biden's course. In Moscow, officials suggested Biden's departure wouldn't deter them from their war goals or affect icy Russia-US relations.

Moscow's Stance

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated: "It's not our business to assess the US president's decisions." Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's Security Council, said on Telegram that Biden's departure wouldn't change Russia's strategy in Ukraine: "The goals of the special military operation will be achieved."

Ukraine and other allies worry about US reliability regardless of who wins. A divided electorate and Congress could lead to domestic challenges overshadowing global issues. Congressional gridlock delayed a USD 61 billion military aid package for months before approval, highlighting the precarious situation.

In Kyiv, Ukrainians are processing this latest twist in a US election that may shape their country's future. Mykyta Kolesnikov, who manages a car wash business, expressed his appreciation for Biden's support: "I love Biden because he supported Ukraine." However, Kolesnikov understood why Biden stepped aside and hoped Democrats would field a stronger candidate.

"Zelenskyy says that he can work with Trump," Kolesnikov said, "but it will be very hard for Ukraine to work with Trump and his team."