Shifting American Views on Robert F. Kennedy Jr in the Presidential Race

AP Republicans are more likely than Democrats to have a favourable opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr, recent polls show, as allies of Donald Trump urge the independent presidential candidate to drop out and endorse the former Republican president. Kennedys support appears to have declined in recent polls as he struggles to find his political lane in a race reshaped by the departure of Democratic President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris nomination in his place. The developments have left relatively narrow room for Kennedys presence — or potential departure — to make a difference in the election outcome. Recent polls dont give a clear indication that Kennedys presence in the race has an outsized impact on support for either major-party candidate. While some polls earlier in the year put Kennedys support in the double digits, support now hovers in the mid-single digits in most recent polls. Its unclear if Kennedy would get even that level of support in the general election, since third-party candidates frequently dont live up to their early poll numbers when voters actually cast their ballots. Kennedy is scheduled to speak in Phoenix on Friday "about the present historical moment and his path forward," just days after his running mate openly discussed the possibility that he could drop out and endorse Trump.

Partisan Appeal

In recent months, Americans overall have been split in their views of Kennedy, 70, the son of former US Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy. About as many people had a favourable as unfavourable view of Kennedy, according to a July AP-NORC poll that was conducted before Biden dropped out of the presidential race last month. That marks a decline from February, when more of those polled had a positive than negative view of Kennedy, and about 3 in 10 did not have an opinion. In the most recent poll, about 2 in 10 US adults didnt know enough about Kennedy to give an opinion. Republicans were significantly more likely than Democrats and independents to have a favourable view of Kennedy. And those with a positive impression of Kennedy were more likely to also have a favourable view of Trump 52 per cent than Harris 37 per cent.

Kennedy also struggled to endear himself to political independents. Although he is running as an independent presidential candidate, polling shows about 4 in 10 independents did not know enough to form an opinion. Those who did were divided about equally between favorable and unfavorable opinions.

The Base of Support

Kennedys appeal largely rested in being an alternative to the match-up many Americans dreaded when Biden was facing Trump in a rematch of of the 2020 election won by Biden. A Pew Research Centre poll from July found that about half of voters who were supporting Kennedy said the main reason they backed him was because he was neither Biden nor Trump, compared with about 3 in 10 who listed Kennedys characteristics or policies.

Harris move to the top of the Democratic ticket may have further harmed Kennedys prospects. An August Pew poll suggested that Harris has gained support at Kennedys expense. She appears to have received the support of some women and non-white voters who previously were considering Kennedy.

About That Family Name

Kennedys initial appeal was largely focused on his family name and his relation to other famed Kennedys, including his father and his uncle, former President John F. Kennedy. CNN polling conducted last summer when RFK Jr. was running for the Democratic nomination found that many Democrats said theyd consider supporting him because of the Kennedy name or his family connections. Many members of the Kennedy family endorsed Biden before he withdrew from the race.

John F. Kennedy remains the most highly rated former president in Gallups retrospective approval ratings, and his appeal crosses party lines. Nine in 10 Americans approve of how Kennedy, a Democrat, handled his job as president, according to data from last summer, with Democrats, independents and Republicans in agreement.

News of Robert Kennedys potential withdrawal comes a little over a week since a New York judge ruled that he should not appear on the ballot in the state because he listed a "sham" address on nominating petitions. Kennedy has appealed, but has faced several similar challenges around the country.

Kennedy is scheduled to speak in Phoenix on Friday "about the present historical moment and his path forward," just days after his running mate openly discussed the possibility that he could drop out and endorse Trump.

Kennedy's support appears to have declined recently as he struggles to find his political lane following Biden's departure from the race and Harris's nomination.

The developments have left relatively narrow room for Kennedy's presence — or potential departure — to make a difference in the election outcome.

Recent polls don't give a clear indication that Kennedy's presence in the race has an outsized impact on support for either major-party candidate.

While some polls earlier in the year put Kennedy's support in double digits, it now hovers around mid-single digits.

It's unclear if Kennedy would get even that level of support in the general election since third-party candidates frequently don't live up to their early poll numbers when voters actually cast their ballots.

Kennedy is scheduled to speak in Phoenix on Friday "about the present historical moment and his path forward," just days after his running mate openly discussed the possibility that he could drop out and endorse Trump.