A Tenuous Thaw : Modi-Xi Dialogue A Prelude toPotential LAC De-Escalation ?

India and China have reached a pact on patrolling along the line-of-actual control (LAC), which is commendable progress from four years earlier when fighting broke out in Galwan Valley. Soon after Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri's comment regarding this, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said at the NDTV World Summit, 2024, that Indian and Chinese soldiers would be patrolling the border area just as in the times before the face-off in May 2020. He also said this could help ease tensions between the two neighbours.

What does this deal mean? Why is it important?

• Reduced Tension: The agreement represents a step towards de-escalation in a region where both nations have deployed tens of thousands of personnel. Reverting to the patrolling protocols that were followed four years ago would lessen the possibility of a face-off or escalation due to close encounters.
• Maintaining Stability: This pact will, possibly, lessen confrontations at sensitive points, such as Demchok and Depsang Plains. The establishment along LAC could improve the environment for more extensive negotiations regarding boundary issues.
• Building Confidence: A confidence-building measure is the resumption of patrolling by the provisions of the pre-2020 era, signifying that both the sides are willing to assume status quo. This also opens the door to additional dialogue.
• Political Fallout: The pact will also, possibly, facilitate high-level diplomatic exchanges at international platforms, leading India to better manage its border infrastructure without the threat of conflict. For China this might mean a strategic move to stabilize the Sino-Indian border situation and focus on other global flashpoints.

Background of Galwan Clash

On June 15, 2020, in the first high-stakes confrontation in the region since 1975, soldiers from both the countries were pitted against each other in hand-to-hand combat, significantly raising tensions along the LAC in Galwan Valley. It led to casualties to both sides. Although the massacre resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers, there are conflicting reports regarding the number of Chinese casualties.

Differing perceptions of the LAC and the development of border infrastructure had precipitated the conflict. In response to the dispute, both parties participated in de-escalation negotiations amid elevated tensions in their bilateral relationships.

Additional Friction Points

Besides Galwan, there are at least four other flashpoints along the LAC, where Indian and Chinese troops had engaged in combat during the 1962 Indo-China War.

• Demchok: The LAC divides Demchok. The western region is under the jurisdiction of India. China is in control of the eastern region, and also declares authority over the western portion. The dispute centres on the precise alignment of the LAC along the Charding Nullah and historical agreements. Recent discussions have revolved round disengagement.
• Pangong Lake: The majority of the Pangong Lake area, approximately 50%, is located in Tibet (under Chinese control), 40% in Ladakh, and 10% is disputed. Disagreements over the border result from differences in how both sides perceive the LAC, even as newer constructions and strategic troops positioning add to the tensions.
• Hot Springs: The strategic location of the Hot Springs area, which is near Gogra Post, is significant for India because it enables surveillance over the LAC. This region's control by India strengthens its defence posture by offering vantage locations for monitoring movements in Aksai Chin, thereby playing a critical role in border security dynamics.
• Depsang:The strategic access to the Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) aerodrome and the Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road makes the Depsang plains critical for India. Control over Depsang is crucial for India for military mobility and defence of its northern border from Chinese incursions across these vital logistical boundaries.

Thaw in India-China Ice

On Wednesday (October 23) Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for one-on-one talks on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan. This meeting indicates the increasing rapprochement between the two nations, soured by a fatal 2020 clash along their disputed Himalayan frontier.

The meeting follows this development. Modi expressed enthusiasm for engaging in a constructive dialogue with Xi during his opening remarks. He said the primary objective should be to preserve peace and stability along the borders. He further said the foundation of the two nation's relationships should remain mutual trust, respect, and sensitivity.

This was the first bilateral meeting to occur in five years, as Xi noted in his remarks that the meeting was receiving significant attention from both the international community and the citizens of the two countries. It was the first formal, structured talks between both sides since they had met in India in October 2019, months before the border face-off.

Xi spoke of similarities between the two Asian giants as both countries were ancient civilisations, important members of the Global South and major developing countries. He added that both were in the midst of a critical phase in their respective modernisation efforts. Both parties must enhance their communication and collaboration, effectively manage their differences and disagreements and support each other in pursuing development goals.

The last time the two leaders had met was at the South Africa-hosted BRICS summit in Johannesburg in August 2023. Subsequently, they instructed their respective officials to enhance their endeavours to disengage and de-escalate along LAC, the de facto 3,500-kilometre border. In November 2022, Indonesia hosted the Group of 20 summit, and Modi and Xi briefly met informally in Bali before Johannesburg.

What Preceded the Thaw

India had announced on Monday (October 21) the border patrol agreement along the disputed frontier, which established the stage for the Modi-Xi meeting in Kazan. The agreement had been thrashed out through intense negotiations between diplomatic and military negotiators of both countries over the past few weeks. The Chinese side also announced on Tuesday that the countries had reached resolutions on "relevant matters", but they did not provide any additional information.

S Jaishankar reportedly said at an event co-organized by a local television station shortly after New Delhi's announcement that it was a positive development. He added that India could confidently declare that the disengagement process with China had been finalized, implying that surveillance would be permitted in the regions where the two nations had previously obstructed mutual travel. Nevertheless, India had implemented more stringent regulations regarding Chinese investments as the situation along the border worsened. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic situation has not yet reinvigorated direct flights between the neighbours.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has declared these restrictions will persist, despite the agreement reached this week. On Tuesday, she addressed the topic of foreign direct investments at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in the US. She stated that India was interested in business and investment, but also required certain safeguards due to India's location in a highly sensitive region.

She further stated that India was unable to permit FDI without meticulously examining its origins. She stated that national interest necessitated the implementation of such restrictions. In an interview with Nikkei Asia, an analyst stated that economic relations would require increased engagement to be significantly enhanced.

Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative in New Delhi, told Nikkei Asia that trade dynamics between the two countries were largely unaffected by political developments and were controlled by private businesses rather than government-led initiatives. He also said sustained efforts would be necessary to resolve the underlying trade imbalances and dependence on Chinese imports in order to establish a balanced and strong economic relationship.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: [email protected])