Study Predicts Over 62 Million Tuberculosis Cases and 8 Million Deaths in India by 2040

India is projected to experience over 62 million tuberculosis cases and eight million deaths by 2040, with a GDP loss exceeding USD 146 billion, according to a study. Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine highlighted that low-income families would face more health-related challenges, while wealthier households would encounter greater economic impacts due to the disease.

Tuberculosis, a bacterial infection, spreads through the air when an infected individual coughs, sneezes, or talks. It mainly targets the lungs but can affect other organs, potentially leading to fatal outcomes. Common symptoms include persistent coughing, chest pain, fever, and fatigue.

Impact of Improved Detection and Treatment

The study published in PLoS Medicine suggests that enhancing case detection rates from the current 63% to the World Health Organization's End-TB target of 90% could significantly reduce disease burdens. Achieving this target might lower clinical and demographic burdens by 75-90% and decrease the macroeconomic burden by USD 120.2 billion.

Furthermore, combining better detection with a 95% effective pan-TB treatment could further reduce disease burdens by 78-91% and cut the macroeconomic burden by USD 124.2 billion. Despite increased funding since 2000, global financing targets for tuberculosis remain unmet.

Call for Increased Investment

The authors emphasised the need for more investment in improving case detection and effective treatments, especially for drug-resistant tuberculosis. This form of TB can develop in patients who are mismanaged or improperly treated.

The researchers developed a model to assess tuberculosis's macroeconomic, health, and demographic impacts in India. They used data from sources like the National Family Health Survey-4 conducted in 2015-16 for their analysis.

According to their estimates, from 2021 to 2040, India will face over 62.4 million new TB cases, 8.1 million TB-related deaths, and a cumulative GDP loss of USD 146.4 billion. The model predicts that low-income households will bear larger health and relative economic burdens.

Meanwhile, high-income households will experience larger absolute economic burdens due to tuberculosis. The study underscores the importance of addressing both health and economic challenges posed by this disease in India.