Madhya Pradesh Polls: Will Maywati's Power Play For Dalit Votes Be Make Or Break?

Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) plans to contest 178 seats in the forthcoming Madhya Pradesh polls, scheduled to be held on November 17.

So far, the BSP has released the names of 74 candidates for the assembly elections to the 230-member house.

In the fourth list released on Sunday, the BSP has named candidates for the assembly seats under Chhatarpur, Shivpuri, Sagar, Rewa, Singrauli, Katni, Jabalpur, Narmadapuram, Khandwa, Rajgarh, Raisen, Khargone, Dhar, Alirajpur, Dewas, Indore, Jhabua, Neemuch, Ratlam, Ujjain and Shajapur districts.

Can BSP Leave Any Impact In MP Polls?

In the 2018 assembly polls, the BSP had won two seats in Madhya Pradesh. However, one of its MLAs later joined the ruling BJP. The lone BSP MLA, Rambai Singh Parihar, is contesting election again from the same seat - Patharia in Damoh district.

However, the BSP, which has been contesting in Madhya Pradesh since 1993, had its best performance in 2008 when it had won 7 seats. Five years later, it was reduced to 2 seats.

While the BSP has not won many seats in the Madhya Pradesh polls, it has garnered a decent vote share that could potentially influence the outcome by dividing votes in the elections.

In 2008, it had secured 8.97 per cent vote share. In the next two polls, it had garnered 6.29 per cent and 5.01 per cent share, respectively.

In 2023, the BSP has formed an alliance with the Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP). As per the agreement, Mayawati's party plans to contest in 178 seats while the GGP will field candidates in 52 seats.

"A government of this alliance will be formed in Madhya Pradesh to end the atrocities on Dalits, tribals, and women. This will also end the dictatorial and capitalist rule of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress and the poor will get justice," the two parties said in a statement.

The GGP, which was formed about three decades ago as a tribal outfit in the then undivided Madhya Pradesh, had won a single seat in the assembly in 1998. In 2003, it won three assembly seats, its best performance to date. The party failed to register any victory after that.

The Number Game

In Madhya Pradesh, the Dalit population constitutes approximately 16 percent of the total population, according to a report in Indian Express. Notably, 35 out of 230 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs). Last polls, the BJP had bagged 18 of these reserved seats, while the Congress emerged victorious in 17.

On the other hand, Tribals make up more than 21 percent of the population, with 47 Assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs). In the 2018 elections, the BJP managed to secure victory in 16 of these ST seats, while the Congress emerged victorious in 30.

While Mayawati's party enjoys good support in regions bordering Uttar Pradesh, such as the Bundelkhand and the Gwalior-Chambal belt, the GGP's has support in the Mahakaushal region, in the districts of Balaghat, Mandla, Dindori, Seoni, Chhindwara, and Betul, where there is a significant Gondi population.

It has to be seen whether the BSP and GGP alliance can make a real impact in the crucial Madhya Pradesh polls, considering that SC and ST have traditionally voted for the BJP and Congress.