Lok Sabha Pre Poll Survey: NDA Expected To Lose Ground In Bihar? Find Out This Opinion Poll

Despite the return of JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar to its ranks, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to experience a reduction in seats in the Bihar Lok Sabha election 2024, securing 32 out of the 40 seats, according to the Mood of the Nation opinion poll by India Today.

On the other hand, Lok Sabha pre poll survey suggests the INDIA bloc, consisting of the Congress, Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD, and Left parties, is expected to bolster its representation and secure eight seats.

In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP, JD(U), and the united Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) had jointly contested, winning 39 of the 40 seats. Specifically, the BJP claimed 17 seats, JD(U) secured 16, and LJP clinched six, significantly weakening the Opposition. The Congress managed to secure only one seat, while the RJD failed to win any.

Regarding vote share, the NDA is projected to experience a slight decrease to 52% from the 53% it garnered in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Meanwhile, the Opposition bloc is expected to witness a surge in vote share by seven percentage points from the 31% it attained in 2019.

The pre-poll survey also suggest that Nitish Kumar's political flip-flop-the fourth in about eight years-is unlikely to bring about drastic changes in both the NDA and INDIA camps.

This time around, the NDA in Bihar will need to accommodate several smaller parties during seat-sharing negotiations. While Nitish Kumar's JD(U) was a part of the NDA in 2019, the LJP is now fragmented into two factions-one led by Chirag Paswan and another by his uncle and Union Minister Pashupati Kumar Paras.

Additionally, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) led by Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Janta Dal have also aligned with the BJP. It remains to be seen whether the BJP and JD(U) opt to contest fewer seats to accommodate their allies.