India Learns from Ghosts of Conflicts Past : The Strength of Iran’s Ageing Air Force Is Anybody’s Guess

Last Friday (October 4), Air Chief Marshal AP Singh stressed the need for India to have advanced air defence systems like Israel's 'Iron Dome'. He was referring to the Israel-Iran conflict, according to an India Today report. Air Chief Marshal Singh elaborated on what the Indian Air Force (IAF) had learnt from the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict and how it planned to adopt newer, more stringent security measures to ensure India's dominance in the skies in the years to come.

The Air Chief Marshal said that, although India was buying systems similar to the Iron Dome, it needed more of them to prepare for potential aerial threats, and the country was making the necessary adjustments.

He said global supply chain issues had cropped up because of the ongoing conflict, impacting military operations around the world. Without naming Iran and its ageing fleet-although he may, possibly have had it in mind-the Air Chief Marshal said the IAF was committed to achieving self-reliance and was busy putting plans in place for developing aircraft and weapons systems entirely within India.

The State of Iran's Air Force: Then & Now

In 2010, the CIA released a document dating back to 1982 that described the Iranian Air Force as a declining threat. Back then, Iran had several advanced US-made fighter jets, including the F-14 Tomcats, F-4 Phantom IIs and Northrop F-5s. Now, more than 40 years later, the state of the Iranian Air Force is uncertain. It is known that they still have some F-14 Tomcats in operation, but the exact number is unclear, leaving many to speculate.

For many years after the 1979 Revolution, the Iranian Air Force was largely isolated and avoided by other nations. Countries, including the Soviet Union-and later Russia, refused to sell fighter jets to Iran. This left Iran struggling to maintain and upgrade its air force, as it could not easily get new aircraft from abroad.

This situation is expected to change, because Russia has announced plans to send Iran around two dozen Su-35S fighter jets, along with an unspecified number of Mil Mi-8 helicopters and Yak-130 training aircraft. According to the Times of Israel, some of the Yak-130 trainers may have already been delivered. This marks a significant shift in Iran's ability to strengthen its air force.

In the 1980s, Iran was engaged in a long war with Iraq, which was then led by Saddam Hussein. During this conflict, Iran lost several aircraft, but the majority of their planes managed to survive the war, which ended in 1988. Interestingly, in 1991, during the First Gulf War, a large part of the Iraqi Air Force fled to Iran, their former enemy, to avoid being decimated by the advancing American forces. This unexpected move helped Iraq save some of its aircraft from the conflict.

Iran eagerly took control of the Iraqi jets, which were of French and Soviet origin and these planes have since been a part of the Iranian Air Force. It is quite ironical that, after nearly a decade of conflict, Iraq ended up practically handing over its air force to Iran.

In 2021, Afghanistan's government, which was recognized worldwide, was once again overtaken by the Taliban. This time, it appears that most of the Afghan aircraft escaped to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, while some may have fled to Iran. Today, many of Iran's aircraft are over 45 years old, originally made in the US, along with the best jets from Saddam Hussein's air force from 32 years ago.

In April 2024, Reuters shared a report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), stating that the Iranian Air Force had 37,000 personnel. However, they only have a few dozen operational strike aircraft. The report mentioned that Iran's combat aircraft included nine F-4s and F-5s, a squadron of Su-24 Fencers and a few MiG-29s, F-7s and F-14s.

Iran's Operational Combat Aircraft (Source: IISS)

1. F-4 Phantom IIs: 9 jets in one squadron

2. Northrop F-5: 9 jets in one squadron

3. Sukhoi Su-24 Fencers: One squadron

4. MiG-29s, F-7, F-14: A small number

With its air force now outdated and limited, Iran depends mainly on missiles, drones and air defence systems. The aircraft it has are often stored in secure underground airbases built into the mountains.

15 Combat Squadrons Reported in 2017

Interestingly, this IISS report appears much harsher compared to an earlier one released in 2017. At that time, the IISS reported that Iran had around 15 combat squadrons, which included five fighter units and 10 fighter-attack units. These were supported by five transport squadrons and a tanker-transport unit.

1. Chinese F-7M Airguard: One unit (derived from the old Soviet MiG-21 Fishbed, which dates back to the 1950s)

2. Russian MiG-29A Fulcrums: Two squadrons

3. F-14A Tomcats: Two squadrons

4. F-4D/E Phantoms: Five squadrons (along with one remaining Su-24MK, supported by a few Su-22 Fitters)

Although the Iranian Air Force has only one Su-24MK, it remains their most powerful ground-attack aircraft, capable of delivering long-range tactical bombing.

Iranian Air Force in 2024 (Source: WDMMA)

According to the WDMMA, Iran currently operates 183 fighter aircraft in its fleet. However, it is important to take these figures with a bit of caution. It is important to be cautious when estimating the actual strength of Iran's air force. Although Iran has shown skill in maintaining its American-made jets despite not having access to official parts, the number of fully operational jets is uncertain. Some reports suggest Iran has acquired parts through the black market.

We also do not know how many jets Iran lost during its long war with Iraq or in crashes over the years. The jets still in service possibly lack modern upgrades, unless Iran has found clever ways to make improvements on its own.

Number of Iran's fighter jets (Source: WDMMA)

I. F-4 Phantom IIs: 63

II. F-14A Tomcats: 26

III. Sukhoi Su-24MK: 23

IV. MiG-29A: 20

V. Northrop F-5: 17

VI. Chengdu F-7 (MiG-21): 17

VII. Mirage F-1: 9

VIII. Saeqeh (Iranian-made F-5 variant): 8

These figures are vastly different from the IISS's estimates. For instance, the WDMMA reports 23 Su-24MKs, while the IISS states that only one Su-24MK is operational.

Regardless of how many of these jets are operational, they would not stand much of a chance against Israel's Air Force, or even the US Air Force, Navy and Marines. Israel's air force is armed with advanced F-35 stealth fighters, along with various models of F-16s and F-15s.

(The author of this article is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: [email protected])