How Many Seats Will BJP Win In Lok Sabha Polls 2024? Here's What India's Top Economist Says

Prominent Indian economist Surjit Bhalla has predicted that the BJP will return to power with 330-350 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

In an interview with NDTV, Bhalla has claimed that the ruling party might get 5-7 per cent more seats than what it had won in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. He said, "Based on statistical possibility, they should get 330 to 350 seats on their own. This is just the BJP, not including its alliance partners,"

The economist, who tracked elections for four decades, said that it may or may not be a wave election. He has predicted that the Congress might get two per cent fewer votes than in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and might win 44 seats, this time.

Talking about the problems in the party, he said, "The problem with the (Opposition) alliance is the leadership. The economy matters the most, the leadership matters second. And both of them are in favour of the BJP. If the Opposition had selected a leader who could have a mass appeal or approximating half the appeal that Prime Minister Modi has, then I think it could be a contest,"

He said that the improvement in the living conditions of the people might help the BJP to increase its vote share in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

"India votes on the basis of how much improvement has been in people's lives. That's the basic premise. It's not caste, not gender, not the various factors that people attribute to, but it is precisely what Bill Clinton had said in 1992, 'It's the economy, stupid'," Bhalla stated.

"What we say is that because of the significant improvement in their lives, 1 per cent or 14 million are poor by the old definition of poverty. Look, we have developed, per capita consumption has improved, lives have improved, so raise the poverty line. In some sense, maybe a quarter of the population is poor. Poverty is relative now, no longer absolute," the economist claimed.

"The poor will always be with us. The rich will always be with us. It depends on how you define who are the poor, and we use the World Bank definition of $1.9 per person per day. We are saying it should be doubled because of the improvement in lives and economy," Bhalla stated.

He also dismissed the data provided by the think tank Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), labelling it as unreliable. He criticized the Opposition for cherry-picking CMIE data to corner the BJP, particularly during election campaigns.

"Everywhere in the world, the Opposition will always say inflation is high, there are too few jobs. But there are less percentage of people unemployed than in 2019 in India, for example," Bhalla noted.

The first of the seven-phase Lok Sabha polls kicked off on Friday in 102 seats across 21 states and union territories. The next phase is scheduled to be held on April 26.