Gujarat RS elections: A tale of two political Chanakyas, Shah and Patel

The election has three seats up for grabs with four candidates vying for them, including both Amit Shah and Ahmed Patel.

Rarely, if ever, have elections for the Rajya Sabha garnered so much attention. And given the characters taking part in political drama in Gujarat, the interest shown by everyone with eyes on Indian politics is quite understandable.

Given the star-cast of Bharatiya Janata Party's all-powerful President, Amit Shah, and the man who taught Sonia Gandhi the workings of politics in the country while being her political secretary, Ahmed Patel, this is as big a blockbuster event that an election for the Upper House of Parliament can throw up.

Especially since one of them, Patel is in the midst of the fight of his life to win. And though his struggle seems to have overshadowed the significance of the other, yet put together the two leaders represent the class, which even though might not be the final decision makers in their parties, are the ones that run them.

Such a standing, makes the present troubles of Patel, most of them caused by Shah's political manoeuvring, and the success of Shah embody everything significant about this Rajya Sabha election and the state of Indian politics as a whole.

Patel's struggle to win a fifth consecutive term has come at a time when his party, and its leader Sonia Gandhi, are fighting to stay relevant in the country's political arena. It all started following the drubbing in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, which they went into after ten years in power, that saw them win only 44 seats as the BJP romped to power.

Since then, adding to the worries of the Grand Old Party, and its Chanakya, Patel, they have seen the BJP go from strength to strength, with the saffron party now in power in 18 states, 13 of them on its own, while the Congress has lost out in state elections one after the other.

This nadir in the Congress's fortunes now seems to be aligning itself with Patel's career too. As the usually behind the scenes manager is not only under pressure due to his party's situation but also from other details such as the growing rise of the Rahul Gandhi's team at the helm of the party along with Sonia Gandhi's ailing health which has seen her take the backseat in party matters.

And now with the struggle to earn another term from his own state has just brought the problem home for him. Though he has been making public statements stating that he is confident of a victory, the actions of 'Resort politics' where the MLA's who are supporting him have been ferried from one city to another, one resort to another, say something else.

Revered for his political calculation by the Congress President, he has been working hard to keep his own flock of MLA's who support him together. On top of that, a couple of defections of those close to him have just added to Patel's worries.

For example, the fourth candidate for the three seats up for grabs this time, Balvantsinh Rajput, who was till recently in the Congress and was mentored by Patel. His switching of sides has just added insult to injury for both Patel and the party.

These developments are a worry for not only the current election but the one for the state assembly to be held next year as well. From 57, the party has gone down to 51 legislators after the six of them resigned following senior leader Shankersinh Vaghela's exit after he rebelled against the leadership.

While those that have jumped ship or separated from the Congress like Vaghela, might not say it, the working of Shah, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP's Chanakya, in such developments is most probably the worst kept secret in Gujarat right now.

As the past few years have seen the dwindling of Patel's political stars, those of Shah, have been shining brighter than ever. Credited with leading the party to its current standing, his total control over the party machinery is unlike that of any past BJP president till date. With him soon to become an MP, his power and control are bound to grow even more and may lead to bigger things in 2024.

For now, he seems intent to finish off the political standing of his fellow Gujarati from the Congress. Parking himself in Gujarat he has left no stone unturned in trying to ensure that all three candidates who are elected are from the BJP, with Rajput joining him and union minister, Smriti Irani, in the Rajya Sabha.

Though it might seem that Shah, who is currently also an MLA in Gujarat, has taken the decision to take on Patel to deliver a blow to the Congress, which Patel's defeat would be, and an attempt to deliver an often-repeated phrase by the BJP, of a 'Congress Mukt Bharat.' It might be too simplistic a view.

Along with being an embarrassment to Sonia Gandhi and the national political leadership of her party, Patel's defeat will also quite possibly derail its already struggling fight for the election next year with party members, supporters and voters viewing it as an end of any hope of mounting a significant challenge.

Yet on a personal level, from one Chanakya to another, there might be a little more to it. And this may come from the happenings when the nature and quantum of power that both now have, were totally opposite. While Patel was one of the most powerful people in the country during the UPA regime, Shah was sent to jail in the Sohrabuddin encounter case when he was the home minister of Gujarat and still just a state leader. It won't be too far off the mark to think that Shah might feel that the push in the case from the various investigative agencies might have had a hand of the then all mighty Patel.

Such a background and the present political realities have played their part in making the latest Rajya Sabha elections into one of the most widely watched, and throw light on the standings that both Patel and Shah have had, and do, in not only their parties but also in the great Indian political tamasha.

OneIndia News