Shivakumar’s fortunes hinge on how big Cong wins in Old Mysuru

The Congress in Karnataka appears to be putting up a united fight ahead of the assembly elections.

The undercurrent within the party however still remains with its chief D K Shivakumar and former chief minister Siddaramaiah going all out to grab the top post if the party comes to power.

Going by the opinion polls, it appears as though the Congress is in the front as the battle stands off date. Some opinion polls have given the Congress the edge and even said that Siddaramaiah is most favoured to be the chief minister of Karnataka. The ratings for Shivakumar are however very low in all these polls.

To turn the tide over, Shivakumar looks to be replicating the S M Krishna model of 1999. Hailing from the Vokkaliga community, Krishna had managed to give the party a clear mandate that year.

During his numerous election rallies, he has appealed to the Vokkaliga community to rally behind him like they did in the case of H D Deve Gowda, S M Krishna and H D Kumaraswamy.

The pitch being made by Shivakumar is clear and he wants to use the Vokkaliga card to ascend to the post of the chief minister, if the Congress comes to power in Karnataka.

The Vokkaliga votes are largely based in the Old Mysuru Region, which elects 61 MLAs. This is a crucial belt and Shivakumar is locked in a tight battle with the JD(S) to ace this belt. The BJP on the other hand is leaving nothing to chance and has been banking on a new narrative to win over this community.

If the Congress were to win Karnataka, the post of chief minister would ultimately be decided by the support by the number of MLAs each leader commands over. Siddaramaiah has a connect with a larger number of MLAs at present. However if Shivakumar manages to ace the Vokkaliga bastion, the race for Siddaramaiah may be harder.

Shivakumar is making an emotional pitch to the Vokkaligas and the move is a calculated one since there is a lot of anger against Siddaramaiah in these strongholds. The elections held in 2018 proved that the anger of the Vokkaligas in the Old Mysuru Region against Siddaramaiah worked against the Congress. The JD(S) won 31 seats in the region, while the Congress was reduced to just 15. Further Siddaramaiah faced a humiliating defeat against G T Deve Gowda of the JD(S) from Chamundeshwari, which falls in the same region.

All parties are keeping a close watch on this region of the state, which has many times in the past changed the fortunes of a political party. If the Congress does well in the Old Mysuru Region, it would be to the credit of Shivakumar and he would end up staking a claim to be the next chief minister of Karnataka.