Bihar Pre-Poll Survey: Can NDA Retain Power In Bihar? Check This Opinion Poll

As the Bihar Assembly Election 2025 nears, political enthusiasts are eager to see which way the tide may turn. A recent pre-poll survey conducted by Lok Poll indicates a tight contest between the ruling NDA alliance (BJP and JD(U)) and the Mahagathbandhan (Congress and RJD).

According to the Lok Poll survey, the NDA is projected to win 105-114 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to secure 118-126 seats. Other parties and independent candidates are likely to claim 2-5 seats, pointing to the fierce and uncertain nature of the race.

This survey captures the pulse of the electorate, examining party performance, voter trends, and seat projections, offering a credible glimpse into the likely outcome of the Bihar elections 2025.

Bihar Election 2025: Seat Projections

Based on extensive ground reports, Lok Poll predicts the following seat distribution:

NDA: 105 - 114 seats

MGB: 118 - 126 seats

Others: 2 - 5 seats

The opinion poll was conducted after 3 weeks on the ground.

Earlier, a Times Now-JVC opinion poll predicted the NDA, led by BJP and JD(U), may win 136 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly.

The BJP is expected to win 64 seats with an edge in 17, while JD(U) may secure 29 seats with an advantage in two more. In the Mahagathbandhan (RJD, Congress, Left), RJD is projected to win 52 seats and Congress 10, reflecting shifts in voter preferences since 2020.

The projections suggest a close contest, where voter sentiment, local issues, and regional alliances will play a decisive role.

As Bihar gears up for its high-stakes assembly elections, the NDA seat-sharing formula is nearly finalised, with the BJP and Janata Dal (United) reportedly reaching a consensus and a formal announcement expected soon.

Under the emerging plan, JD(U) is likely to contest 102 seats and the BJP 101, reflecting Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's insistence on having "at least one more seat than BJP".

Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is expected to get 20 seats, a recalibration from the 2020 elections when JD(U) contested 115 seats, BJP 110, and smaller allies HAM and VIP received seven and 11 seats, respectively. Paswan has emphasized that his party will not accept less than a respectable number of seats, with sources suggesting he seeks 40, though the alliance may be willing to allocate only 20.

The 2025 Bihar elections are shaping up to be a fierce contest between the NDA (BJP and JD(U)) and the Mahagathbandhan (Congress and RJD), with smaller parties like LJP(RV), HAM, and VIP playing crucial roles in influencing the final outcome. This is the first time that Prashant Kishor's newly formed party, Jan Suraaj, will be contesting the polls.

Analysts predict that regional issues, voter turnout, and local leadership performance will be decisive factors.