Assam Assembly Polls 2026: Alliance Talks Stall As BJP, Congress Face Seat-Sharing Tensions

Assam is moving closer to its 126-member Assembly election, yet the two principal political camps are still wrestling with alliances and seat-sharing arrangements. While both sides say partnerships exist "in principle", the actual distribution of constituencies remains unsettled and friction within blocs is becoming increasingly visible.

Congress camp tries to avoid repeat of 2021

The principal opposition, the Indian National Congress, is attempting to regain ground after its defeat in the 2021 election. A major concern within the party is whether it can bring regional forces together and prevent fragmentation of anti-BJP votes.

In the previous election, Congress lost several constituencies narrowly. Two regional outfits, Raijor Dal and Asom Jatiya Parishad (AJP), contested separately. In at least 14 constituencies, their vote totals exceeded the BJP's victory margin, effectively splitting the opposition vote and benefiting the ruling party.

Bhupen Borah's exit alters equations

Senior leader Bhupen Borah recently resigned after spending 32 years in the Congress and joined the BJP. He had earlier led negotiations aimed at building a united anti-BJP platform.

His departure has weakened the party's organisational structure and added uncertainty to ongoing alliance talks, especially as negotiations were at a sensitive stage.

Seat-sharing tussle intensifies

Congress state president Gaurav Gogoi has indicated the party wants to contest 100 of the 126 seats. However, its prospective allies are pushing for a larger share.

Akhil Gogoi of Raijor Dal has sought 15 constituencies. The AJP has argued it ideally requires 40 seats to gain recognition as a state party, which needs a 6% vote share, but has scaled down its demand to 20 seats while signalling flexibility.

If Congress contests 100 seats, only 26 constituencies remain for all allies together, a formula that many smaller parties consider inadequate.

BJP alliance shows strain despite advantage

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is aiming for a third consecutive term under Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Its primary ally remains the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).

In 2016, the AGP contested 24 seats and won 14. By 2021, the BJP fought 93 seats while the AGP received 25 and secured only 9 victories, showing the BJP's growing dominance and the ally's shrinking influence.

Recently, Sarma said the AGP could contest as many seats as it wished but the BJP would decide where it fields candidates. He also declared the BJP would contest a constituency currently held by an AGP MLA, suggesting possible "friendly contests" between partners.

Meanwhile, the Congress has severed ties with the AIUDF, a party with significant Muslim support, in an effort to win back ethnic Assamese voters. It is now attempting to unite anti-CAA regional parties such as Raijor Dal and the Asom Jatiya Parishad to prevent vote division.

As campaigning approaches, both sides face a similar challenge. Congress must build a coherent alliance to overturn its last defeat, while the BJP seeks to expand its influence even if it means reducing the space available to its own allies.