After hottest February since 1877, IMD predicts India likely to witness extreme weather condition in April-May

IMD said there was little probability of heat waves in March, but most parts of the country could experience extreme weather conditions in April and May.

India reported the warmest February this year since 1877 with average maximum temperatures touching 29.54 degrees celsius, the weather office said on Tuesday while linking it with global warming.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said most parts of the country are expected to experience above-normal temperatures while the southern peninsula and parts of Maharashtra are likely to escape the brunt of harsh weather conditions.

Addressing a virtual press conference, S C Bhan, the Head of the Hydromet and Agromet Advisory Services of IMD said there was little probability of heat waves in March, but most parts of the country could experience extreme weather conditions in April and May.

The monthly average maximum temperature for February was the highest since 1877, Bhan told reporters in response to a question, linking the rising trend to the phenomenon of global warming.

''The entire globe is living in an era of global warming. We are living in a warming world,'' Bhan said when asked whether the high temperatures were an indication of climate change.

Rainfall average likely to be normal

The monthly average minimum temperature over the Indian region was the fifth highest during this February since 1901. Rainfall average over the country is most likely to be normal (83-117 per cent of long period average) in March, Bhan said. The LPA of rainfall over the country as a whole during March based on data from 1971-2020 is about 29.9 mm.

He said below-normal rainfall was expected over most areas of northwest India, west-central India and some parts of east and northeast India. Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of peninsular India, east-central India and some isolated pockets of northeast India.

La Nina conditions prevailing over equatorial Pacific region

Bhan said currently, La Nina conditions were prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region, which was expected to weaken and turn to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions during the pre-monsoon season.

La Niña is a climate pattern that occurs in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is characterized by colder than normal sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, which can have significant impacts on weather patterns around the world. La Niña events typically occur every 3-5 years and can last anywhere from 9 months to 2 years. They are part of the larger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which also includes El Niño events, in which sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific are warmer than normal.

He said it was too early to forecast the impact of El Nino conditions on the monsoon season. ''April would be a better time to forecast the impact of El Nino on the monsoon. We will issue a forecast mid-April,'' Bhan said.