OPINION: India must keep tabs on China’s links in Maldives!

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh's recent visit to Maldives is sure to boost the ties between New Delhi and Male. India must, however, remain cautious about the Maldives' domestic political scenario. China has had aggressive designs against India in the region. It may use the Maldives' Opposition, under former President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, to sideline India.

The dialogue Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had with his Maldives counterpart Mariya Didi in Male last week is sure to boost further the ties between the two nations.

During his visit, Singh also met President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. Observers say that he had a very warm exchange of views with them on the entire gamut of the two nations' relations. During the visit, he handed over a fast patrol vessel and a landing craft to the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF). The patrol vessel is capable of coastal and offshore surveillance at high speeds.

Foundations of ties between India and Maldives are very strong. The two nations have been connected with each other in cultural, ethnic and economic terms since ancient times. The origins of Dhivehi (the Maldivian language) harken back to Sanskrit and Pali, the roots of many southern Indian languages.

After Maldives attained independence in 1966, India was amongst the first nations to recognise it. In 1976, India and Maldives signed a maritime boundary treaty which places Minicoy on the Indian side. In 1981, the two nations signed a comprehensive trade agreement.

In recent years, India and Maldives have signed several agreements, including $500 million in grants and financing to support maritime connectivity and an $800-million line-of-credit from India's Exim Bank.

Today, India's military presence in Maldives includes reconnaissance aircraft, military helicopters and personnel. It is also believed to include officers of our Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). India and Maldives conduct Ekuverin, an annual joint military exercise, every year. This exercise aims to enhance the interoperability between the Indian Army and MNDF.

The Indian Navy and the MNDF cooperate on maritime information sharing and domain awareness. They work together closely in several bilateral, mini-lateral and multilateral fora, such as the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium and the Colombo Security Conclave.

During their fourth Defence Cooperation Dialogue (DCD), chaired by our Defence Secretary Giridhar Aramane and his Maldivian counterpart Major General Abdulla Shamaal, at Malé in March this year, India and Maldives decided to further boost bilateral defence ties.

India has contributed a lot to the security of the Maldives from time to time. In 1988, the Indian armed forces conducted 'Operation Cactus' and helped the Maldives foil a coup d'état attempt. In the wake of a drinking water crisis in Malé in 2014, India came to its rescue. During the COVID-19 crisis of 2020, New Delhi provided $150-million currency-swap support to help the Maldives mitigate the financial impact of the pandemic.

However, India must remain cautious about Maldives' domestic political scenario. China has had aggressive, anti-India designs in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Today, things are fine for India. Maldive President Solih is fully appreciative of our Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Neighbourhood First' policy.

His is an 'India First' policy in the region. He appreciates that India has always been a "reliable ally to Maldives, through thick and thin." President Solih's Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), too, is for better ties between New Delhi and Male.

But presidential elections are due in the Maldives in September this year. The main contest is likely to be between incumbent President Solih and former President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom of the Progressive Party of Maldives. If Yameen returns to power, China may reach out to him again to sideline India in the region.

Beijing is likely to find it easy to win over Yameen. During the latter's presidency (2013-18) in Maldives, Male and Beijing were very close to each other. China obliged Maldives with financial aid worth $3 billion. In 2014, then President Yameen endorsed Chinese supremo Xi Jinping pet project Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). He granted China large-scale infrastructure contracts, including a bridge connecting the main Maldivian island, port facilities and an airport. In 2017, President Yameen signed free trade and maritime agreements with China.

Besides, Yameen has been rabidly anti-India. In 2018, Maldives excluded India from its list of 'friendly nations'. He has in the recent years led the 'India Out' campaign in Maldives.

The observers add if Yameen returns to power, it might help radical Islamists conduct their anti- India activities from the island nation. Traditionally, the Maldives has been a land of moderate Islam. But Yameen has always encouraged militant Islam in the country.

(Jagdish N. Singh is a senior journalist based in New Delhi. He is also Senior Distinguished Fellow at the Gatestone Institute, New York)

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