Will 2019 be a 2014 or a 2004 for BJP: Your view on exit polls

As the bitterly-fought seven-phased Lok Sabha elections came to a close on Sunday evening, barring a few all the major exit polls predicted a comfortable majority for the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). However, these are not a reliable predictor of the actual numbers that would be announced on the 23rd, just hours from now. Exit polls do not have a reliable track record of forecasting electoral outcomes.

In the 2004, most leading exit polls had given the incumbent Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led NDA government a significant lead over the Congress-led alliance. In fact, the numbers stopped just short of the 272-mark. However, the actual result stunned pollsters and voters. The Congress-led front, subsequently named the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), won 225 seats. NDA finished second with 189 seats while others won 129 seats.

While in 2014, most of the exit polls were accurate in predicting the pulse of the nation and gave the BJP-led NDA an edge over Congress-led UPA. The BJP got the absolute majority on its own by alone winning 282 seats.

So, will 2019 turn out to be like 2004 or a 2014 for BJP?