Palakkad Bypoll: Will BJP Register Historic Victory In Kerala?

Kerala's Palakkad is becoming a key political battleground, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) aiming for its first assembly seat in the upcoming bypoll. The contest is fierce among the NDA, UDF, and LDF. This election is of particular importance to the saffron party as it seeks to make significant inroads in the Kerala assembly.

The BJP has historically struggled to gain traction in Kerala. However, Palakkad offers a unique opportunity for the party. The district is one of only two constituencies where the BJP won in civic body elections and now controls the municipal corporation. This success underscores Palakkad's strategic importance to the party.

Political Dynamics and Key Players

In this high-stakes bypoll, Congress has fielded Rahul Mamkootathil, while BJP's candidate is C Krishnakumar. The CPM has put forward P Sarin as their contender. These candidates are at the forefront of a heated political battle that could reshape Kerala's political scene.

The by-election was necessitated after Shafi Parambil, a Congress leader and sitting MLA, was elected to the Lok Sabha from Vadakara constituency. This development has intensified competition among parties vying for control over Palakkad.

Adding to BJP's challenges is internal discord, highlighted by Sandeep Varier's decision to withdraw from campaigning for C Krishnakumar. Varier, a prominent figure in televised debates and a state committee leader with ties to RSS, announced his withdrawal on Monday.

BJP's Growing Influence

The BJP has been expanding its influence in Palakkad with 122 panchayat members and 28 ward members across the municipality. Despite this growth, Palakkad's diverse population, especially its large Christian community, remains resistant to BJP's advances.

Historically, since 1952, Palakkad alternated between voting for CPM and Congress. However, since 2011, it has leaned towards Congress. In recent elections of 2016 and 2021, BJP secured second place with vote shares of 29% and 35%, respectively.

Challenges Ahead

BJP district president KM Haridas faces challenges navigating Palakkad's complex political landscape marked by diverse religious communities and rising tensions. The party must address these issues if it hopes to secure victory in the upcoming bypoll.

The Election Commission of India postponed the Palakkad Assembly bypoll from November 13 to November 20 due to the Kalpathi Ratholsavam festival.

Historical Context

In 2021, E Sreedharan of BJP nearly won against Congress candidate Shafi Parambil but lost by around 4,000 votes. This close result demonstrates BJP's growing presence in Palakkad despite historical resistance from voters.

The upcoming bypoll could be pivotal for Kerala politics as internal strife within Congress and shifting voter alignments suggest potential changes on the horizon.

It may be recalled that in 2016, the BJP made a significant breakthrough when O. Rajagopal won the Nemom constituency in the Kerala Legislative Assembly elections, marking the first time the party secured a seat in the state assembly. Despite this victory, the BJP has not been able to expand its presence significantly in subsequent elections, and Nemom was lost in the 2021 state assembly elections.

Now, all eyes are on Palakkad as it may become BJP’s reentry point into Kerala’s assembly politics.