Lok Sabha Poll Predictions For Kerala: BJP Set To Register Record Vote Share; Will It Translate To Seats?

The BJP is predicted to increase its vote share in Kerala in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections but it is unlikely to open its account, as per Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey.

The Congress-led UDF is expected to win 13 seats in the Lok Sabha polls while the remaining seats are expected to be bagged by the LDF.

18.44 per cent of the respondents said that they would vote for the BJP while 43.38 per cent people stated they would back the UDF, and 34.74 per cent said they would vote for the LDF.

The BJP had secured a little over 10 per cent of votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections while getting over 13 per cent of vote share in the 2014 Lok Sabha. It means the saffron party is set to register its highest-ever vote share in the Lok Sabha polls in Kerala.

The Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey, which surveyed 28,000 people across all Assembly segments in March.

Will it translate into seats?

Unfortunately, the findings from the survey indicate that it will not translate into seats.

Of the survey's total participants, 43.38 per cent said they would back the UDF, while 34.74 per cent said they would vote for the LDF. The NDA received the support of 18.44 per cent of the participants. The NDA has yet to win a Lok Sabha seat in Kerala. Its best performance was winning the Nemom constituency in the 2016 Assembly polls.

However, The BJP is significantly impacting the vote share and influencing outcomes in several constituencies. The NDA is expected to cut into the LDF vote in Chalakkudy. Vadakara, Kannur, Attingal, and Palakkad are witnessing unpredictable contests due to intense battles between the UDF and LDF, with the NDA's influence making the races tight in these areas, the survey said.

While the UDF leads in Thrissur, Chalakkudy, and Mavelikara, the survey doesn't discount the potential for unexpected victories.

Among the 20 seats, the BJP is hoping to win Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur constituencies.

In Thiruvananthapuram, BJP's Rajeev Chandrashekhar is taking on Congress candidate Shashi Tharoor, who has won the seat thrice in a row. According to the survey, Tharoor is projected to secure a 40.07 per cent vote share. Chandrasekhar is expected to receive 29.88 per cent of the votes, while CPI leader Raveendran is predicted to garner a 28.37 per cent vote share.

In Thrissur, it is predicted anticipated that K Muraleedharan of the UDF will secure 36.52 per cent of the votes, while the BJP's Suresh Gopi is poised to secure 30.59 per cent followed by and Sunikumar (30.53 per cent).