Kerala: IMD Predicts Early Monsoon Arrival; Check Date Here

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday, May 15, predicted early arrival of the southwest monsoon in Kerala. Sharing a tentative date, the weather monitoring department, said that monsoon will hit Kerala on May 31.

Typically, the monsoon arrives in Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about seven days. The monsoon then advances northward in surges, covering the entire country by around July 15.

This year's forecast predicts the monsoon will hit Kerala by May 31, with a model error margin of ± 4 days. The onset date of the monsoon is crucial as it signals the progression of rains across India, providing relief from the intense summer heat.

The IMD's state-of-the-art statistical model uses six key predictors to forecast the monsoon onset date. These include minimum temperatures over Northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall patterns in the south peninsula, and various atmospheric parameters over the equatorial southeast Indian Ocean and the southwest Pacific Ocean.

The IMD noted that its operational forecasts for the monsoon onset over Kerala have been accurate for the past 19 years, except in 2015.

Fresh Heatwave to Hit Northwest and East India

Meanwhile, a fresh heatwave is set to sweep across Northwest and East India, starting May 16, according to the IMD. This heatwave is expected to intensify over several states, including West Rajasthan, Punjab, south Haryana, and parts of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. Severe heatwave conditions are also anticipated in East Rajasthan, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh during this period.

The IMD's release indicated, "Heat wave conditions are very likely in isolated pockets over the Gujarat Region from May 15-17; Konkan on May 15-16; Saurashtra and Kutch on May 16-17; and Delhi, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, and Odisha on May 18-19, 2024."

Hot and humid weather is expected in Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and Bihar on May 15 and 16.