Paris Olympics 2024: Will India Break Into The Top 30 In The Medal Tally?

With the Paris Olympics set to begin this week, the United States has been positioned as the favourite to win the most medals.

Although China is not expected to surpass the USA in the overall medal count, they are projected to secure more gold medals than their historic rivals.

Paris Olympics 2024: Can India Break into the Top 30?

The projection by Nielsen's Gracenote Sports, a provider of statistical analysis and tools for sports leagues globally, predicts that the United States will win 112 medals overall, comprising 39 gold, 32 silver, and 41 bronze. China is forecasted to win 86 medals in total, including 34 gold, 27 silver, and 25 bronze, as reported by First Post.

These predictions are based on major competitions involving Olympic sports leading up to the Summer Games. In the pandemic-delayed Tokyo Olympics in 2021, the USA and China finished first and second in both the overall and gold medal counts. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) does not officially compile medal rankings.

The official tally is based on the number of gold medals won by a nation. However, Gracenote has computed its standings based on the total medals won. If the USA tops the standings in Paris, it will mark the eighth consecutive time they lead the medal tally at the Summer Games.

The last time the USA was surpassed was at the 1992 Olympics in Barcelona when a Unified Team, comprising athletes from the former Soviet Union, finished with four more medals. The last Summer Olympics where the USA did not top the gold medal table was in 2008 in Beijing, as reported by First Post.

Following the USA and China in overall totals and gold medals are Britain (63-17), France (60-27), Australia (54-15), Japan (47-13), Italy (46-11), Germany (35-11), Netherlands (34-16), and South Korea (26-9).

The rankings from 11 to 20 are: Canada (21-7), Hungary (20-7), Brazil (18-8), Spain (18-5), Poland (17-3), Denmark (14-5), Turkey (14-4), New Zealand (14-4), Ukraine (13-2), and Ethiopia (12-6).

The 21 to 30 spots are held by: Kenya (12-5), Sweden (12-4), Belgium (12-4), Georgia (12-3), Uzbekistan (12-3), Switzerland (12-0), Iran (11-4), Ireland (10-2), Kazakhstan (10-2), and Jamaica (10-1).

India has not been mentioned in Gracenote's report, which focuses on the top 30 countries. India's 117-member contingent did not find a place in the projection. At the Tokyo Olympics, Gracenote had predicted India would win 19 medals, finishing 18th with multiple medals in shooting. However, India won seven medals, none in shooting, finishing 48th, as per media reports.

Hosts France are expected to see a significant increase in their medal count, nearly tripling the number of gold medals won in Tokyo. This increase is partly attributed to the heavy spending by host nations for a home Olympics and the advantage of competing in familiar surroundings, as per media reports. Japan, which won a record 58 overall medals and 27 gold in Tokyo, is expected to see a decrease this time.

The presence of Russian and Belarusian athletes remains an unknown factor. They have been largely absent from international competitions due to the war in Ukraine. The IOC has ordered that any medals won by these athletes not be included in any medal table. In Tokyo, over 300 Russian athletes competed, but this time the number may be just a dozen or so.